Istanbul Talks: A New Chapter in the Turbulent Quest for Peace Between Ukraine and Russia
On Thursday, a delegation from Ukraine and one from Russia convened in Istanbul, Turkey, to negotiate an end to the ongoing war. There had been discussions for three days about the possible attendance of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and US President Donald Trump. However, this high-level meeting did not materialize as anticipated.
The high expectations surrounding the Istanbul meeting are just the latest chapter in a chaotic campaign initiated by Trump over the past three months, aimed at establishing himself as a successful mediator and achieving peace in Ukraine. Trump's personal campaign began on February 12 with a phone call to Putin, where he initially sought to negotiate directly with the Russian leader while sidelining the Ukrainians. He later managed to contact Zelensky, but the concerns about serious engagement remained.
During his election campaign, Trump claimed he could bring peace to Ukraine within twenty-four hours—a statement viewed as a campaign strategy rather than a plausible promise, one he repeated 53 times.
President Zelensky, desperate to be part of negotiations, proposed substantial mining concessions in exchange for security guarantees from the United States. The arrangement would provide the U.S. with access to Ukraine's valuable and rare minerals while securing some form of protection against Russia. However, this plan, which had been discussed since September 2024, ultimately fell apart. Trump had suggested that Ukraine’s mineral wealth should serve as compensation for the military aid the U.S. has provided over the past three years. When Zelensky visited Washington in late February seeking to solidify security guarantees, his plans were thwarted in a public row with Trump, leading to his ejection from the White House without a signed agreement. Consequently, Trump suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine for several days.
In contrast, Trump took a more constructive tone with Russia. He offered to ease economic sanctions imposed against Russia since the 2014 annexation of Crimea if Putin agreed to negotiate constructively.
Despite the tumultuous interactions, within two weeks, the Ukrainians regained respect and recognition as interlocutors by the U.S. Zelensky publicly expressed regret on social media, and at a meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on March 11, his delegation accepted a U.S. proposal for a thirty-day ceasefire with Russia. To reduce tensions, the Ukrainian negotiators dressed formally, contrasting with Zelensky's military-style attire that had previously caused friction in Washington.
This new ceasefire proposal sought to display genuine intentions for peace, yet Putin declined it. Nevertheless, a specific agreement emerged in which both sides agreed to halt bombardment of each other's energy infrastructures for thirty days.
The minor ceasefire between March and April marked an intriguing phase; both sides refrained from conducting long-range strikes on critical energy assets. However, regular bombings resumed at the end of the thirty days, with Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities continuing aggressively. For instance, on April 13, a missile struck the city of Sumy, killing 34 people.
Irritated by Russia's indifference, Trump shifted his language, adopting a harsher tone towards Putin and hinting at new sanctions affecting not just Russia but also countries maintaining commercial relations with it.
In a bid to regain control, Putin offered a three-day ceasefire around May 9, a significant day in Russia commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany. Zelensky rejected this offer, instead reiterating a demand for an unconditional thirty-day ceasefire. During Pope Francis’s funeral in Rome on April 26, Zelensky and Trump met face-to-face, an encounter broadcasted worldwide and generating immense interest.
Following this, a diluted version of the rare earth agreement was signed by the Americans and Ukrainians. In the days following the commemoration in Moscow on May 9, the leaders of Germany, the UK, Poland, and France stated that if Putin did not accept an unconditional thirty-day ceasefire, Europe would impose additional sanctions on Russia. Putin responded with an offer to initiate negotiations in Istanbul again.
This isn't the first instance of negotiations between the two nations in Istanbul; earlier talks in 2022 had similarly ended without fruitful results. Now, as Zelensky attempted to frame Putin's offer as a pivotal moment, he invited Putin to Turkey for direct discussions. Sensing a possibility for an exceptional meeting, Trump suggested that he, too, would participate, perhaps seeing it as a chance to cement his legacy as a peacemaker. However, expectations were once again dampened as Putin did not attend and Trump kept his distance, with the Russian delegation resembling the one present in 2022.
Related Sources: