Japan's Political Landscape Shifts: Sanae Takaichi Set to Make History

In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has held a near-constant grip on power for nearly seventy years with its conservative stance, has recently inked a deal to ally with the Innovation Party (JIP), known as Ishin in Japanese. This agreement positions Sanae Takaichi, the new leader of the LDP, to potentially become the Prime Minister, marking a historic milestone as she would be the first woman to hold this position in Japan's history. Both branches of the National Diet, the House of Councillors and the more prominent House of Representatives which decides in case of disagreement, are set to vote on this coalition arrangement on Tuesday. Currently, both Ishin and the LDP are marginally short of the absolute majority needed to win on the first ballot. However, it is anticipated that Takaichi will prevail in the runoff, particularly as the other political factions have not unified around any single alternative candidate. After decades of political stability, Japan has been navigating a period of heightened uncertainty. Though the LDP has governed predominantly since 1955, recent elections have left the party considerably weakened amid mounting economic pressures, major scandals, and the rising influence of populist far-right parties, making the landscape more tumultuous than ever. Notably, in the October 2024 elections, the ruling coalition formed by the LDP and Komeito, a smaller centrist conservative party, lost its long-held majority in the House, and just last July, the government also lost its Senate majority. The current Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, announced his resignation following the disappointing election outcomes, and while he remains in office until his successor is chosen, Takaichi took over leadership of the LDP in early October. At 64 years old, she boasts an extensive governmental background spanning two decades, known for her conservative and often aggressive policies, particularly in foreign relations. Her stance includes opposition to same-sex marriage, advocating for amendments to the Constitution to enhance military authority, and fostering closer ties with Taiwan, which is viewed as a de facto independent entity by China. Takaichi aligns with the faction of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, known for its radical and conservative ideologies. Following her leadership appointment on October 4, 2025, Komeito withdrew from the long-standing ruling coalition — a significant move as the two parties had collaborated for 26 years, largely within a governmental capacity. Komeito's leader cited the LDP's refusal to back a bill that aimed to limit corporate donations to political parties while prohibiting donations to individual politicians as a decisive factor in their exit. Takaichi's hardline conservative views, which diverge greatly from Komeito's centrist philosophy, likely played a role as well. The dissolution of this alliance has compelled the LDP to seek new partnerships, turning to Ishin for support. Under the terms of the newly proposed agreement, which is expected to be formalized soon, the LDP will accommodate several of Ishin's requests in the prospective government framework. These include plans to eliminate the 10 percent Value Added Tax (VAT) on food, reduce the number of parliamentary representatives from the current 713, and designate Osaka as a vice capital. Founded in 2015 by former Osaka mayor Toru Hashimoto, Ishin wields significant influence, particularly in the Osaka region, and their collaboration with the LDP signifies not just a desperate bid for governance but could also reshape Japan's political trajectory amid ongoing uncertainties. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2