Kais Saied's Path to Reelection: A Compromised Landscape in Tunisia's Democracy
As Tunisians head to the polls to vote in the presidential election, a pervasive sentiment hangs in the air: the incumbent, President Kais Saied, is poised to secure another term with minimal opposition. This election marks a crucial juncture in a country once lauded as the beacon of hope in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, a phase that saw the fall of several autocratic regimes across the region. Yet, amidst political repression and economic turmoil, many wonder if this election will catalyze a real change in leadership.
Kais Saied first emerged on the political stage in 2019, riding the wave of public discontent with the establishment. As an outsider, he won the presidency, pledging to reinvent Tunisia and empower younger citizens and local governance. However, since taking office, he has systematically dismantled democratic institutions and stifled dissent, consolidating his grip on power. This election is particularly poignant, being the first since Saied declared a state of emergency in July 2021, dissolving key governmental bodies, and controversially rewriting the constitution.
The political landscape is starkly different today. Saied faces little in the way of formidable challengers; most credible opposition figures are either imprisoned or barred from participating. Among those sidelined is Rached Ghannouchi, the leader of the Ennahda party, currently incarcerated for opposing Saied's regime. The election itself has been branded a farce by many opposition groups, notably under the banner of the National Salvation Front, comprising secular and Islamist factions that decry the election’s legitimacy.
Despite intentions from several politicians to run against Saied, the electoral authority permitted only three candidates: Saied himself, Zouhair Maghzaoui, and Ayachi Zammel. Maghzaoui's participation, while noted, is tainted by his past support for Saied's constitutional amendments, which have drawn ire from opposition circles. Zammel, on the other hand, comes to the race with his own baggage, facing multiple convictions related to fraudulent practices in his bid for candidacy.
Compounding the sentiment of futility regarding political change is Tunisia's pressing economic crisis. Unemployment has surged to around 16%, disproportionately affecting the youth. Adding to the malaise are longstanding economic grievances exacerbated by a lack of clarity in Saied’s proposed solutions. Attempts to negotiate a $17 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund have bogged down due to Saied's resistance to conditions involving austerity measures, which are anticipated to be widely unpopular.
Migration remains a poignant issue for many citizens seeking a better life abroad, as illegal attempts to reach Europe have surged between 2019 and 2023. Yet, Saied’s administration seems to take a hardline stance against migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, fueling xenophobic rhetoric that has led to increased violence against these communities and a crackdown on those already residing in Tunisia.
While Tunisia strives to maintain ties with Western allies, under Saied, it has forged new partnerships, including lifting visa requirements with Iran and benefiting from Chinese investment through the Belt and Road Initiative. This dual approach illustrates Saied's desire to carve out Tunisia’s sovereignty, a populist theme echoed by leaders worldwide.
As the election unfolds with Saied seemingly unchallenged, it raises questions about Tunisia's future direction, the state of its democracy, and whether its citizens will continue to passively witness the erosion of their once-promising democratic aspirations.
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