Latest CIS Survey Indicates PSOE's Continued Lead Amidst Changing Voter Dynamics
A recent survey by the CIS indicates that the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) would continue to secure a victory in the upcoming elections, commanding 34% of the vote. However, this latest estimate highlights a narrowing lead compared to the People's Party (PP), which has closed the gap significantly from a mere 4 percentage points in the prior September poll to just 25 points now.
Despite the tightening numbers, both parties have seen growth in voter support. The PP, for its part, has increased its overall vote share from 28.5% in September to 31.5% in the latest assessment, marking a total gain of three points. Meanwhile, the PSOE has seen a slight uptick, rising from 33% to 34%.
The survey results suggest that while the PSOE retains its lead, the buoyancy of the PP could signal a competitive electoral landscape ahead. On the other hand, other parties are experiencing significant drops in voter confidence. Vox, in particular, has fallen to 11.3%, while Sumar is now polling at just 6.3%.
Podemos continues to decline, dropping by 0.3% to reach 3.3%. Additionally, the party "Se Acabó la Fiesta" has suffered a more substantial loss of over one point since the cryptocurrency scandal involving Alvise Pérez, who reportedly accepted a donation of €100,000 that went unreported, now standing at just 1.7%.
In the realm of nationalist parties, ERC has shown a modest gain, increasing by two-tenths of a percentage point and surpassing Junts by 0.4%. The latter has also reported some growth, rising by one point.
In Basque politics, the PNV has reaffirmed its dominance over EH Bildu, with the former surpassing the latter by a narrow 0.1% margin. EH Bildu's support has dropped from 11% in September to 9% in the most recent findings, suggesting a gradual decrease in their voter base.
The evolving dynamics within Spain's electoral landscape will likely play a critical role as parties prepare for the impending elections. With shifting voter support and emerging scandals, the upcoming campaign period promises to be anything but predictable.
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