Marine Le Pen Faces Legal Setback Amidst Rise in Support
In a rural market near a roast chicken stand, Jocelyn Dessigny was distributing flyers featuring Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far-right National Rally (RN) party, alongside the phrase 'Save Democracy.' This distribution follows Le Pen's conviction this week for orchestrating a system of fraudulent job contracts to embezzle over €4 million ($3 million) from European Parliament funds from 2004 to 2016. The court has imposed a five-year ban on her participating in elections, a decision that has incited strong reactions from Le Pen herself, who claims the ruling effectively excludes her from the 2027 presidential race.
Dessigny, a former sales manager and current RN member of parliament in the Aisne department of northeastern France, described the local sentiment as one of 'stupefaction.' The Aisne region, characterized by gnarled economic challenges including high unemployment and poverty rates, remains a stronghold for Le Pen, where the party has secured considerable electoral victories in recent years.
In response to the court's decision, Dessigny quickly organized transportation to Paris for a protest rally that Le Pen is set to hold this Sunday. Le Pen's aim is to confront what she calls a 'tyranny of judges' who are attempting to prevent her candidacy in a race she believes she could win.
Calling for a protest rally signifies a shift in strategy for Le Pen, who has spent over a decade attempting to frame her party as a legitimate governance option rather than merely a vessel for protest votes. Despite this effort, opponents of the RN have consistently labeled its policies as racist, xenophobic, and anti-Islam. Political analysts suggest that following the embezzlement verdict, Le Pen's party might revert to its populist roots.
Xavier Bertrand, the right-wing head of the Hauts-de-France region, warned that the upcoming rally could echo the divisive styles seen during Donald Trump’s presidency, particularly with the storming of Capitol Hill in January 2021. However, Dessigny insisted that the rally would not evoke such chaos but would instead act as a means to 'calm and channel' any public anger stemming from the recent conviction.
The RN has reported an influx of 20,000 new members within just four days after the conviction, while half a million individuals signed a petition on the party's website in support of Le Pen. Yet, several opinion polls indicate that a broad majority of the French populace supports the conviction, with one survey revealing that 61% believe her sentencing was justified. Furthermore, another poll suggested that many viewed the ruling as a normal consequence of her alleged crimes.
For Le Pen to expand her electoral base, she would require support from pensioners, traditional conservative voters, and higher earners. Yet, garnering these new supporters appears to be a challenging task. The planned rally in Paris seems designed to reassure her long-time supporters that her political career remains alive and she intends to appeal the verdict.
In Villers-Cotterêts, a rural town of about 10,500 residents northeast of Paris, public opinion at the market was decidedly mixed. The town, home to an RN mayor for over a decade, has a complex history, being the birthplace of revolutionary General Dumas.
Responses varied among the market-goers: Paul, a former charcuterie shop owner, and his wife Marceline, former housekeeper in Paris, expressed unwavering support for Le Pen, stating that their voting intentions would not change. Hugues, aged 64 and a former chef turned delivery driver, echoed this sentiment, believing that the judges targeted Le Pen intentionally due to her popularity. 'I think judges have done this to her deliberately in order to break her because she’s leading in public opinion,' he stated.
On the contrary, some expressed dissent, including a market worker in his 30s who stated, 'Sorry, but if you’re a crook, you pay.' Catherine, a retired nurse, added, 'Any ordinary person would go to jail, so why shouldn’t a politician face a tough sentence? It's absolutely crazy to have a rally in Paris; she’s a crook.' Céline, a former Sarkozy voter, indicated that Le Pen's credibility had diminished significantly following the conviction and noted her inclination to abstain from future votes.
Notably, some Le Pen supporters are beginning to consider the 29-year-old party president Jordan Bardella as a potential alternative in future elections. Noël, a former tiler, expressed unabashed support for Le Pen while acknowledging that Bardella could attract new voters. Franck Briffaut, the town's RN mayor, suggested that if the judicial system aimed to hinder Le Pen's political future, it might ultimately yield unintended consequences, as the party has seen a surge in membership following the conviction.
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