Navigating a Complex Alliance: The Significance of Putin's Visit to India

When Vladimir Putin last stepped foot in India nearly four years ago, the geopolitical landscape was starkly different. That brief visit, curtailed by the COVID-19 pandemic, saw him and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussing economic and military cooperation, reaffirming their historically strong relationship. Shortly after, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine would cast Putin into global pariah status, isolating Russia and limiting his international engagements. The backdrop of this visit is characterized by a turbulent geopolitical climate. Analysts emphasize that Putin's journey to India not only symbolizes the enduring relationship between the two nations but also sends a clear message of defiance against U.S. pressure. This summit occurs at a pivotal moment, with Putin arriving in Delhi after rejecting a recent Ukraine peace proposal from the U.S., bolstered by perceived military gains on the battlefield. According to Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the significance of this visit for Russia lies in its mere occurrence – it represents a return to something akin to normal international relations, indicating Russia's diminishing anxieties about political isolation. Conversely, for India, the stakes are even higher. As noted by Aparna Pande of the Hudson Institute, India faces one of its most challenging geopolitical scenarios in years, contending with a semi-isolationist United States, a weakened Russia, and an assertive China. Significantly, the day before Putin's arrival, a critical opinion piece authored by Western diplomats criticized Russia's seriousness about peace in Ukraine, prompting a fierce rebuttal from India's foreign ministry which condemned such public advice on bilateral relations. India's longstanding relationship with Russia dates back to the Cold War and continues to influence its defense procurement, with Russia being India’s largest military supplier. Such a partnership was previously tolerated by Western governments, but the recent political landscape, particularly with Trump's administration, complicates this dynamic significantly. In recent years, the U.S. and Europe largely overlooked India's growing Russian oil imports, facilitated by sanctions. However, after failed peace efforts in Ukraine, Trump intensified public pressure on India to halt its oil purchases from Russia, which culminated in new tariffs on Indian goods. India’s response to U.S. pressure has been to reassert its autonomy in foreign policy, reflecting its long-held tradition of a multi-alignment approach. The meeting between Modi and Putin comes amidst a series of challenges, including an increasingly close Russian-Chinese partnership that raises concerns for Indian security. Pande remarks that India’s reliance on Russia as a counterbalance to China has become vital, especially with the latter presenting a formidable threat. Despite the smiles and camaraderie often displayed in public between Modi and Putin, the nature of their alliance is rooted in realism. India seeks to balance its defense partnerships with Russia while avoiding over-dependence to mitigate risks should relations between Russia and China evolve unfavorably for India. Another key aspect of the upcoming discussions is economic cooperation, particularly regarding energy. While Modi has committed to continuing oil purchases from Russia, recent U.S. sanctions pose challenges to Indian private sector imports. The dynamic of energy trade is further complicated as India has also indicated a willingness to increase its imports of U.S. oil and gas, possibly in an attempt to placate American concerns. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, acknowledged the hurdles existing in economic and energy cooperation but expressed confidence in their ability to navigate through sanctions. Peskov downplayed the potential impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports to India, asserting that Russia has the capabilities to circumvent these constraints in the long run. As Modi and Putin sit down for talks, the discussion of Ukraine is expected to be limited, focusing on India's calls for peace, with analysts noting that India lacks the leverage to effect substantial change in the ongoing conflict. Modi may advocate for dialogue between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, but realistically, India's role appears constrained to urging both sides toward communication rather than acting as a mediator with significant influence. As these leaders convene amidst a backdrop of complex global dynamics, the implications of their discussions will resonate far beyond the immediate bilateral relations, shaping the contours of international alliances and geopolitical strategies in an uncertain world. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2