Navigating Change: The Evolving Landscape of the European Commission
On September 17, the new European Commission was unveiled, revealing significant shifts under the leadership of President Ursula von der Leyen. This announcement underscores three pivotal trends: the consolidation of von der Leyen's authority, the shifting balance of power among EU member states, and the growing influence of right-wing political forces, as evidenced by recent European election results.
Despite her role as the first female president of the Commission, von der Leyen did not attain gender parity, assembling a team of only 11 women out of 27 commissioners. Nevertheless, she has approached her second term with a firm resolve, demonstrating a willingness to confront dominant male figures in the EU. For instance, a recent controversy led to the dismissal of Thierry Breton, a former French Commissioner, whom she replaced with the more compliant Stéphane Séjourné, illustrating her capacity to challenge one of the EU's leading nations without succumbing to political expediency.
The makeup of von der Leyen's cabinet reflects a pronounced tilt towards right-wing parties, with 13 representatives hailing from the center-right European People's Party (EPP). Complicating the political landscape further, the Commission now includes members from far-right factions, such as Italy's Raffaele Fitto of Fratelli d'Italia and Austria's Magnus Brunner of the ÖVP, who will manage migration policies. This inclusion reflects the rising tide of right-wing sentiments across Europe during uncertain times.
In the current geopolitical climate affected by Russia's war in Ukraine, Central and Eastern European nations are gaining traction while traditional powerhouses like Germany and France appear to be diminishing in influence. Poland, for example, has secured the position of Budget Commissioner, enhancing its standing within the EU. Additionally, the Baltic states are playing a more significant role in foreign and security policy, with Estonia's Kaja Kallas succeeding Spain's Josep Borrell and Lithuania's Andrius Kubilius taking charge of a new defense portfolio, the specifics of which are still vague.
France, on the other hand, faces the loss of a well-regarded commissioner despite some turbulence in his tenure. However, it has succeeded in acquiring an executive vice-president position and a comprehensive portfolio focused on industrial strategy. This move aligns with President Emmanuel Macron’s vision for strengthening European sovereignty. Yet, it raises questions about whether Séjourné, though experienced in European procedures, can effectively navigate the complex economic and industrial landscape while shaking off perceptions of being a mere representative of Macron.
The stakes are particularly high given the pressing challenges of investment and competitiveness in Europe, which were highlighted in a recent report by Mario Draghi. As such, the success of the new Commission leadership is critical, not just for France, but for the broader aspirations of the European Union.
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