Navigating Trade Tensions: The Impact of U.S. Presidential Politics on China Relations
The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is acutely aware of the significance of tariffs in American politics, particularly during Donald Trump’s presidency, which began following the 2016 election. Trump implemented tariffs on Chinese imports totaling an unprecedented $360 billion, a move that many economists argue ultimately raises prices for American consumers rather than punishing China as intended.
Contrary to expectations that Joe Biden would ease these trade barriers, he has maintained a similar stance, recently imposing a 100% tariff on imported Chinese electric vehicles. This continuation of a tough trade policy has alarmed many in Beijing, as tensions between the two nations seem to be reaching a new plateau.
Trump, should he regain the presidency, has promised to further escalate these trade barriers by 50-60% on Chinese goods. He perceives tariffs as a necessary punitive measure against China, despite warnings that this may negatively impact U.S. consumers more than it does the Chinese economy.
Interestingly, the stance towards free trade seems to have flipped on its head, with representatives from the Chinese Communist Party emerging as advocates for globalization while democratic nations in the West impose protective tariffs, claiming that these are essential against Chinese products subsidized by the state.
Yan Xuetong, a senior political scientist and Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing, has suggested that Trump is, surprisingly, the American president that Beijing prefers. Despite the potential for a trade war, Yan argues that Trump might allow China’s ascent on the world stage more readily than Vice President Kamala Harris, who he believes is likely to prioritize maintaining U.S. global dominance.
During a recent seminar, Yan noted the potential for increased political conflicts between China and the U.S. should Harris seek the presidency. He articulated concerns that a Harris-led administration would likely sustain Biden’s protectionist policies, including restrictions on high-tech exports to China and sanctions related to human rights abuses within Xinjiang.
Kamala Harris has previously vocalized her stance favoring America in the global contest of the 21st century and criticized Trump for attracting the support of tyrants and dictators who perceive him as easily led by flattery.
As the political landscape shifts, regardless of who takes the presidency, it is clear that tensions between the U.S. and China are set to persist. While a powerful China does not equate to an existential threat to the U.S., the more pressing question remains: who will gain the authority to shape the global order? Professor Yan Xuetong raises an important point regarding a hypothetical future where the power dynamics tilt significantly, possibly leading to Chinese military establishments resembling American bases in East Asia.
As both nations continue to navigate complex economic and geopolitical terrain, the ramifications of U.S. domestic politics—particularly regarding tariffs and trade—will undoubtedly resonate across the globe, shaping the future of international relations.
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