Netanyahu's Tactical Moves: Prolonging Conflict for Political Survival

Last week, a White House official revealed to Politico that Israeli bombings in Qatar were strategically timed during ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, reiterating a troubling pattern of behavior from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Every time negotiations seemed to progress, Israeli military actions thwarted potential agreements, with the official stating, "Every time we make progress on the ceasefire, it seems that Netanyahu bombs someone new." This latest incident in Qatar did not result in casualties among negotiators but effectively derailed the ceasefire talks yet again. While the exact motivations behind these bombings remain unclear, it is evident that Netanyahu approved these military actions, fully aware of their potential to sabotage negotiations. Netanyahu, facing immense pressure from his extremist political allies, appears to be using a blend of rhetoric, military operations, and backtracking to extend the conflict in Gaza, which has raised suspicions about his intentions. Public Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have made it clear that any possibility to end the fighting could lead to the collapse of Netanyahu's government. In a scenario where Israel were to hold elections, his chances of re-election remain uncertain, especially with the specter of multiple corruption trials looming over him, potentially leading to significant prison time. As a result, many analysts believe Netanyahu is maneuvering to maintain his grip on power and evade legal consequences. Throughout the past two years, numerous ceasefire agreements have seemingly been within reach, only to fall apart at the last minute, often due to Netanyahu's sudden changes or outright rejection of previously agreed terms. For instance, in March, a ceasefire arrangement made in January was publicly derailed by Israel's decision to recommence bombings in Gaza. Netanyahu has also been known to alter negotiation terms at the eleventh hour, complicating agreements. After apparent progress in negotiations back in 2024, he insisted Israel must retain control over the Philadelphi corridor, a condition that further delayed discussions for months. On various occasions, he has demanded Hamas's complete demilitarization or suggested the exile of Hamas leadership as preconditions for any agreement. These demands, coupled with declarations of Israel's intent to exterminate Hamas leadership, have consistently undermined trust and stymied negotiations. Recently, Netanyahu has shifted the definition of 'total victory' in Gaza, altering criteria for success to suit the political landscape. In May, he articulated that this victory entailed retrieving hostages, eliminating Hamas, and demilitarizing the region—all goals that remain unfulfilled. Notably, in August, his administration approved a controversial military occupation plan for Gaza City, a move that signals a potential long-term occupation and could extend hostilities significantly longer. As accusations of delaying peace negotiations are lobbed at Netanyahu, he reciprocates by chastising Hamas’s negotiation style, which is often seen as uncompromising. Indeed, while Hamas has imposed difficult conditions in the past, reports suggest there have been numerous times when they were willing to enter into substantial agreements which ultimately failed, often due to Netanyahu's last-minute adjustments. This ongoing cycle of negotiation failure has caused frustration within the U.S. administration, both under Trump and Biden. Biden explicitly accused Netanyahu of prolonging the conflict for his political benefit in 2024, yet Netanyahu has faced no tangible repercussions from the U.S. for his persistent roadblocks to peace. The political chess game played by Netanyahu not only endangers the fragile peace in the region but also threatens the lives of countless individuals caught in the crossfire. As he maneuvers through the quagmire of Israeli politics and personal jeopardy, the prospect of finding a lasting resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict grows increasingly dim. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2