Pessimism Grows Over Ukraine War Resolution as EU's Borrell Warns of Long-Term Attrition

Josep Borrell, the former High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, voiced a bleak outlook regarding the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, which marks its fourth anniversary since the invasion. During a recent debate at the Casa de América in Madrid, organized by the Hold on Ukraine platform, Borrell cautioned that a formal peace agreement is unlikely due to the unacceptable conditions that Ukraine would need to agree to. He characterized the ongoing war as one of attrition, suggesting that its outcome will rely more on the political resilience of Europe rather than an immediate diplomatic resolution. Borrell likened the situation to the Korean conflict but clarified that even this comparison is distant. "I don’t see a peace treaty. At best, we could talk about a situation similar to Korea," he remarked, emphasizing that such a scenario is not imminent. Borrell pointed to Russia's tactical goal of weakening Ukraine structurally, especially as winter approaches and systematic attacks on energy infrastructures leave the country in darkness. He framed the conflict as not merely a military issue but also one of narratives, stating, "There are two wars: one is the real war where people die; the other is a war of minds." He drew attention to the efficacy of Russian propaganda, which has found traction in parts of Latin America, indicating a broader influence and the strength of the Russian narrative beyond Europe. Of particular concern to Borrell is the stability of Western support for Ukraine. He noted that the recent tempo of sanctions against Russia and the mobilization of €90 billion in financial aid has faced obstacles, particularly due to Hungary’s vetoing of key decisions that were previously rapidly approved at the onset of the war. The initial unity among European nations in providing arms to Ukraine has markedly eroded. Borrell stated, "Today that consensus is more fragile." He further underscored the risk of a weakening transatlantic alliance, exacerbated by the stance of former US President Donald Trump, which he sees as diverging from established US policy towards Ukraine. Even amid his skepticism regarding a swift resolution, Borrell emphasized that Ukraine possesses a tangible chance to resist as long as Europe sustains its political, economic, and military backing. He also pointed out the strains within Russia, which is reportedly dedicating around 40% of its budget to the conflict, thereby limiting investment in other critical areas. "I’m not so sure that time is on Russia’s side," he declared, diffusing the common narrative that Russian endurance will outlast Ukrainian resilience. Sergio Jaramillo, the former High Commissioner for Peace in Colombia and cofounder of the Hold on Ukraine initiative, also addressed the debate, highlighting the profound resilience demonstrated by the Ukrainian people, particularly women. He emphasized that the strength of Ukrainian resistance lies in human relationships and community support. As the discussion concluded, participants recognized that rather than an imminent negotiated end, the conflict foresees an extension shaped by European political cohesion and resilience. The outcome, they agreed, will hinge not solely on military confrontations but on the political dynamics within Europe itself. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2