Portugal's Political Landscape Shifts: Center-Right Struggles Amidst Rising Far-Right Influence
In a significant political development, Portugal's incumbent center-right party emerged victorious in its third general election in just three years, held on May 18. However, the Democratic Alliance (AD) fell short of securing a parliamentary majority, amidst increasing support for the far-right party, Chega. The election results highlight the potential for prolonged political instability in the NATO and European Union member state, especially as the European bloc grapples with mounting global trade tensions and bolsters its defense strategies.
Preliminary official results indicate that Prime Minister Luis Montenegro's Democratic Alliance garnered 32.7% of the vote, while the Socialist Party (PS) and Chega were almost neck and neck in the second position. This outcome elevates the AD's tally in the 230-seat parliament to 89 seats, still 27 seats shy of the 116 needed for a majority government. Despite the party's relatively strong performance, Montenegro assured his supporters, "The people want this government and this prime minister."
The Socialist Party received only 23.4% of the vote, marking its worst electoral outcome in decades, while Chega, which literally translates to "Enough", obtained 22.6% of the votes, allowing each party to secure 58 seats in parliament. While the AD may count on the support of the newly formed, business-friendly Liberal Initiative (IL)—which won nine seats—Montenegro has expressed reluctance to engage with the anti-establishment Chega, labeling it as unreliable and unfit for governance.
The emergence and growth of Chega reveal a troubling trend, as support for far-right parties has escalated in Portugal since its establishment in 2019 by Andre Ventura, a former trainee priest turned football commentator. The party first gained representation in parliament in the 2019 elections, marking a historic milestone as it was the first far-right representation since a coup dismantled a long-standing dictatorship in 1974. Chega's influence expanded, making it the third-largest faction in the 2022 election and increasing its seats from 12 to 50 last year, closely mirroring similar trends of increasing far-right sentiment across Europe.
As four seats remain to be allocated for Portuguese nationals living abroad, Ventura is optimistic that Chega will secure more representation and emerge as the country’s second political force, potentially overtaking the Socialists. "Nothing will ever be the same again," Ventura declared, echoing sentiments of his supporters who chanted, "Portugal is ours and it always will be."
This recent election was called into action when Montenegro lost a parliamentary vote of confidence in March, following accusations of conflicts of interest relating to his family's consultancy business that works with clients holding government contracts. Montenegro, a trained lawyer, has denied any wrongdoing, claiming he is not involved in the everyday operations of the firm.
Historically, the AD appointed a minority government after the previous election and successfully passed a budget that enhanced pensions and public sector salaries while significantly reducing income taxes for young citizens, thanks to the PS's abstention from crucial parliamentary votes. Relations between the AD and PS, however, have soured in the wake of the confidence vote, raising questions about whether a weakened Socialist Party will cooperate with the center-right during this term.
Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos criticized Montenegro for allegedly orchestrating the election to avoid accountability regarding the contentious matters of his consultancy business. Following the announcement of the election results, Santos detailed plans to hold an internal party election to choose a new leader in response to the PS's disappointing performance.
Moreover, Montenegro has been vocally critical of the previous Socialist government’s immigration policies, which he claims led to disorder in the country. Under Socialist rule, Portugal opened its doors to immigrants, leading to a significant increase in the foreign population; from 2017 to 2024, foreign residents quadrupled, constituting roughly 15% of the nation's populace. In contrast, Montenegro's administration has tightened immigration policies and recently announced the deportation of nearly 18,000 irregular migrants, drawing accusations of catering to far-right voter sentiments.
As Portugal navigates through these turbulent political times, the future remains uncertain, especially with the line between populism and governance increasingly blurred.
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