Potential Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah: Key Developments and Challenges Ahead
On Tuesday, a critical meeting of the Israeli government's Security Cabinet is scheduled, featuring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu along with key ministers such as Defense and Foreign Affairs. According to various reports, the primary agenda of this meeting will revolve around the potential approval of a 60-day ceasefire with Hezbollah, the politically and militarily influential group based in Lebanon. While Netanyahu has shown general acceptance of the proposed conditions, the specific details remain obscured.
Lebanese officials, as reported by Reuters, indicate that an announcement of this ceasefire could come within the next 36 hours, notably by U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron. Despite the apparent optimism surrounding these negotiations, significant steps must still be taken, as unresolved issues may obstruct progress. The latest round of discussions, which had been stalled and then revived multiple times, suggests a plan whereby the Israeli army would withdraw from southern Lebanon. In turn, Hezbollah is expected to relocate its forces north of the Litani River, away from Israel's borders, thereby allowing the regular Lebanese army to enter and create a buffer zone.
An Israeli official noted that Netanyahu's acceptance of these terms is largely influenced by pressure from the United States. However, this acceptance came with a caveat: the ceasefire should not be viewed as a permanent cessation of hostilities. It is reported that Israeli negotiators are particularly focused on maintaining the option to resume military operations should Hezbollah violate the terms and reengage in conflict near the border area.
Yet, it remains uncertain whether Hezbollah will agree to this framework or accept the likelihood of future Israeli operations in Lebanon. John Kirby, spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, affirmed that both Israel and Hezbollah are nearing an agreement, but he cautioned that no final deal has been secured at this stage.
Adding to the complexity of the situation, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, known for his ultranationalist views, publicly criticized the ceasefire implications, labeling it as a significant error. He has also threatened to withdraw his support from the government if this ceasefire is confirmed. This is a recurring pattern observed with Ben-Gvir, who has previously made similar ultimatums regarding ceasefires in other contexts such as in the Gaza Strip.
The composition of the Security Cabinet and the potential vote on such a ceasefire accord remains a contentious issue, with internal divisions likely to pose additional challenges to cementing the deal. As the situation develops, the coming days may prove pivotal in determining not only the future relations between Israel and Hezbollah but also the broader implications for regional stability.
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