PPA Set to Secure Majority in Upcoming Andalusian Elections, According to Recent Poll
The PPA is poised to win the upcoming Andalusian elections with 435 votes, leading by 221 points over the PSOEA, which is projected to garner 214 votes. This result indicates the PPA will maintain its absolute majority in the regional Parliament, a position it solidified during the elections held in June 2022.
According to a barometer released on December 16, 2024, by the Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces Centra, an organization aligned with the Ministry of the Presidency, Interior, Social Dialogue, and Administrative Simplification of the Junta, the survey was conducted from November 20 to 29, involving a sample of 3,600 adult residents of Andalusia.
Vox is expected to remain the third most popular party in the community, with 133 votes, a slight decrease of 0.2 points compared to the previous regional elections. It seems that Sumar, aligned with Por Andalucía, which includes coalition partners like Podemos, IU, and Más País, would rank fourth with an estimated 75 votes. Meanwhile, Adelante Andalucía is projected to obtain 41 votes and secure between two to three seats, while 'Se acabó la fiesta,' led by Luis Alvise Pérez, could receive 37 votes, allowing it to potentially claim zero to two deputies in the Andalusian Parliament.
The survey indicates that among parties currently represented in the Andalusian Parliament, only the PPA is expected to increase its vote share, improving by 0.4 points. In contrast, the PSOEA is predicted to lose 2.7 points, Vox and Por Andalucía each 0.2 points, and Adelante Andalucía by 0.5 points compared to the previous elections.
Translating these vote shares into seats, the PPA may secure between 57 and 59 seats in the Andalusian Parliament, slightly down from their current 58. The PSOEA is projected to decrease its presence from 30 deputies to between 26 and 27. Vox might obtain between 13 and 15 seats, maintaining proximity to the 14 parliamentarians it achieved in the last election. Sumar is expected to increase its representation from five seats to between six and eight seats in this round.
Adelante Andalucía, now led by José Ignacio García, is expected to receive between two and three deputies, maintaining similar representation as it currently holds. Meanwhile, 'Se acabó la fiesta,' which does not currently hold any seats in the Andalusian Parliament, is projected to achieve representation ranging from zero to two seats.
This survey marks the tenth polling conducted by the Andalusian Barometer of Centra since the regional elections on June 19, 2022, reflecting ongoing political trends in the twelfth legislature.
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