Progress in Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations: A Closer Look at Phases Two and Three
On February 4, a spokesperson for Hamas announced the initiation of discussions surrounding the second phase of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The first phase commenced on January 19 and is designed to last for 42 days. On February 4, it was expected that talks for the following phase would begin as planned. These negotiations are being mediated by the United States, along with Egypt and Qatar. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that by the end of the week, he would be sending a delegation to Qatar. Notably, Israel and Hamas do not communicate directly during these negotiations; instead, they exchange requests and conditions via international mediators.
The ceasefire agreement establishes fundamental expectations for the second phase, which includes Hamas's commitment to release all remaining hostages in Gaza in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners currently held in Israel. Additionally, Israel is expected to complete its troop withdrawal from the Strip. Significant details and methodologies for implementing these procedures will need to be defined during the ongoing negotiations.
The ultimate third and final phase of the ceasefire stipulates that Hamas shall hand over the bodies of hostages who died during their captivity, coupled with the commencement of a reconstruction plan for Gaza. Negotiations for this plan are yet to be outlined. Should discussions for the second and third phases fail, an extension of the initial phase may be considered, or there could be the unfortunate resumption of conflict.
On January 30, there was a pivotal release of Israeli hostages in Gaza, which served as a significant development during this ongoing crisis. In parallel, on February 4, a meeting between Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump was anticipated in Washington, marking Netanyahu as the first foreign leader to be welcomed by the new U.S. administration. This meeting underscores the close ties between the two governments, particularly as Netanyahu embarks on his first international trip since November. In this previous month, an arrest warrant was issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC); however, the U.S. does not acknowledge the ICC’s jurisdiction, mitigating concerns regarding any potential arrest.
During his first administration from 2017 to 2021, Trump demonstrated unwavering support for Netanyahu's government policies, for instance, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the occupied territories in the Golan Heights and moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Ahead of their meeting, Trump commented on the ongoing ceasefire in Gaza, expressing uncertainty about its sustainability by stating, "I have no guarantees that peace will hold." In addition to several topics, discussions during this meeting are expected to encompass the progression of the second phase of the ceasefire.
As it stands, the ceasefire has held firm, with both parties adhering to its conditions. Though minor issues have arisen, they were quickly resolved. Since the ceasefire began on January 19, hostilities and Israeli bombings in the Strip—which had persisted for over a year—have ceased. Among the notable achievements during this time are four exchanges of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
To date, 18 Israeli hostages have been released, while 79 are still held captive by Hamas or affiliated groups like Islamic Jihad, with only 44 believed to still be alive. In return, Israel has released several hundred Palestinian detainees, including 183 in the last exchange which transpired on February 1. As of January 27, Israel began permitting the return of the displaced Palestinian population to northern Gaza, beyond the Netzarim corridor.
In the upcoming weeks, the continuing exchanges of hostages and prisoners are anticipated, while negotiations remain focused on defining the specifics of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. This situation remains fluid, and developments are being monitored closely as stakeholders hope to navigate towards lasting peace.
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