Puigdemont's Political Maneuvering: A Break That Changes Little

Can you terminate a partnership that never truly existed? This paradox was at the heart of former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont's announcement on Monday evening, proclaiming a split with Spain's ruling party, PSOE. The declaration caught many off-guard, but upon closer inspection, it reveals more about political strategy than any genuine rupture. Puigdemont has pledged to halt all negotiations with the Socialist government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, positioning his party, Junts per Catalunya, as a clear opposition group. However, what initially feels like a political earthquake is more akin to the groaning of decaying wood. Since Sánchez's election in late 2023, Puigdemont has effectively been in opposition. At that time, Junts supported Sánchez's candidacy, providing him with a slim parliamentary majority. Their primary concern at the time was to prevent a coalition between the conservative People's Party (PP) and the far-right party Vox, both of which are adamantly against Catalan separatism. The Socialist government has made efforts to accommodate separatist demands, yet these concessions have often fallen short of satisfying Catalan interests. Although Sánchez has backed a law granting amnesty to leaders convicted during the 2017 secession attempts and has furthered Catalonia's tax authority and the introduction of Catalan as an official language for the EU, many of these measures remain unrealized. The Supreme Court's blockage of the amnesty law illustrates the political complexities Sánchez faces, yet Puigdemont attributes the lack of progress to PSOE's insufficient commitment. In reality, a genuine schism would have been marked by a vote of no confidence against Sánchez—one Puigdemont has yet to announce despite having the capacity to catalyze such an action swiftly. The opposition, comprising right-wing factions, falls merely four votes short of destabilizing the Sánchez government. However, an alliance with Vox may be too much of a stretch for Puigdemont, who is no stranger to carefully calculated risks. For two years, Sánchez has managed governance without formal budget resolutions, a situation exacerbated by Junts's ongoing opposition. This has culminated in an atmosphere where Sánchez's minority government faces potential paralysis if Junts ceases all cooperation. In theory, this tug-of-war should compel Sánchez to resign and call for fresh elections, yet polls indicate that this would likely tilt the political landscape further to the right in Spain, potentially curtailing concessions made towards Catalan autonomy. Puigdemont is acutely aware of these dynamics. His latest gambit appears to be an attempt to up the ante in this high-stakes political poker match. Should Sánchez threaten resignation, there’s a chance that Junts may reconsider its unwillingness to assist the Socialist agenda. Moreover, Puigdemont and his party face burgeoning pressure from the newly emerged far-right Aliança Catalana, which is attracting disenchanted voters previously aligned with Junts. This party combines both separatist and Islamophobic sentiments and has gained traction in Catalonia, diminishing the influence of Puigdemont’s group. Operating from exile since fleeing Spain's judiciary in 2017, Puigdemont has a history of dramatic political gestures that garner attention. His ability to deliver impactful speeches, such as one in Barcelona in the summer of 2024, followed by a swift escape from potential arrest, speaks to his theatrical political style. Meanwhile, the Socialists maintain a measured demeanor amid Puigdemont's protests, asserting their willingness to engage in dialogue. Throughout his tenure, Sánchez has navigated numerous challenges, including instances of scandal within his party, all without stepping down. In this context, Puigdemont's latest outburst is but one of many hurdles that Sánchez, the political acrobat, has deftly sidestepped. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2