Putin's Strategic Visit to China: Aligning Forces Amidst the Ukraine Conflict

This weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin will embark on an unprecedented trip to China, marking a significant moment in the ongoing dialogue surrounding the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin describes this visit as crucial, coinciding with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit and Beijing's military parade celebrating the 80th anniversary of Japan's defeat in World War II. Notably, Putin will be joined by North Korea's Kim Jong-un and leaders from Iran and Cuba, emphasizing the geopolitical significance of this gathering. Analysts highlight the agenda for the meeting between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, primarily focused on aligning their positions regarding the Ukraine war amid increasing U.S. efforts to mediate a resolution. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, stresses the importance of these discussions, suggesting that Moscow is eager to ascertain Beijing's level of support and its potential response should the U.S. exert pressure on Russia. As the war continues, China has emerged as a critical economic ally for Russia, with bilateral trade surging to approximately $240 billion last year, showcasing a remarkable 66% increase from before the invasion. China has solidified its position as the leading importer of Russian oil and coal, and its role is unlikely to diminish even if hostilities cease. Gabuev argues that Russia seeks assurances regarding China’s long-term demand for oil and gas, particularly in light of recent fluctuations in Russian oil exports. The visit is expected to facilitate discussions on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and plans to enhance existing oil transport routes to China. There will also likely be conversations centered on military collaboration, a development drawing concern from Western governments. While China has not directly provided military aid, reports indicate that it has supplied a significant amount of machinery and semiconductors essential for Russia's military operations. Despite China's assertion of neutrality in the Ukraine war, ties between Russia and China have strengthened since the conflict's inception. Moscow has proposed including Beijing as a security guarantor for Ukraine, a suggestion met with skepticism from Kyiv. The symbolism of Putin's participation in the military parade alongside Xi on September 3 underscores the historical and ideological bonds shared by the two nations. This event parallels the May 9 Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, reflecting a mutual perception of historical triumph and reinforcing their partnership. Additionally, Kim Jong-un's presence at the parade indicates China’s effort to mend relations with North Korea, which has supported Russia's war efforts. Analysts see this as a strategic maneuver to balance its influence in the region. The implications of Putin's visit extend far beyond regional concerns, drawing the attention of U.S. policymakers who have long tried to encourage a rift between Moscow and Beijing. However, many experts assert that the relationship between Russia and China is too resilient to fracture, with both leaders currently feeling empowered in their respective geopolitical stances. China has also adeptly navigated tensions with the U.S., recently extending a trade truce and flexing its economic power with strict export controls on rare earths. Meanwhile, Russia remains steadfast in its aims in Ukraine, disregarding U.S. threats and intensifying its military activities. As the visit unfolds, the international community watches closely, recognizing the broader implications of a united front between Putin and Xi. The fate of the Ukraine conflict and the future of global diplomacy hinge on the outcomes of this pivotal meeting, which may set the tone for diplomatic relations not just between Russia and China, but also their standing in the context of global geopolitics. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2 • Source 3