Rebel Forces Advance on Homs as Assad's Regime Faces Existential Threat
On December 7, reports emerged indicating that rebel factions in Syria were making significant advances towards the central city of Homs. This escalation has prompted urgent discussions among key allies of President Bashar al-Assad - Russia, Iran, and Turkey - who are preparing to convene to address the most serious challenge to Assad's rule in years.
Government troops, bolstered by Russian air support, are racing to counter the rebel push towards Homs, a strategically vital city located at the crossroads of Damascus and Syria's coastal provinces, including Latakia and Tartus. According to the Saudi-owned news outlet Al-Arabiya, Russian forces have intensified airstrikes around Homs in a bid to stymie the rebel momentum, while additional reinforcements from the Syrian Army are reportedly being dispatched to the area.
Homs province, the largest in Syria by area and sharing borders with Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan, also hosts one of the country's two state-run oil refineries, underscoring its importance to the Assad regime.
The unexpected offensive initiated last week is led by a coalition of rebel groups prominently featuring the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This coalition also includes elements of the Syrian National Army, an umbrella organization of Turkish-backed Syrian militias. Despite Turkey's denials regarding any direct involvement in the offensive, analysts argue that the recent military actions would likely not have occurred without Turkish consent.
As the fighting escalates, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that nearly 300,000 people have been displaced since late November, with estimates suggesting that as many as 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels continue their advance. The conflict has already seen civilians fleeing Homs towards the relative safety of the Mediterranean coastal regions in Latakia and Tartus, which remain strongholds for the Assad government and home to vital Russian military installations.
The rebels' momentum has not waned since they took control of Aleppo a week prior. The Syrian opposition forces have rapidly seized other significant cities, while Assad's military has, conspicuously, offered little resistance. In the south of the country, insurgents declared their control over the crucial cities of Deraa and Suweida on December 6, further solidifying their presence in the region.
The capture of Deraa and Suweida could open the door for a coordinated assault on Damascus, the heart of Assad's regime. In an exclusive interview with CNN on December 5, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani expressed confidence that Assad's government is on the brink of collapse, stating, "The seeds of the regime's defeat have always been within it. The truth remains: this regime is dead."
As the rebels make gains on multiple fronts, the impending diplomatic talks among Iran, Russia, and Turkey could prove critical in determining the future landscape of power in Syria and whether the Assad regime can survive this latest onslaught.
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