Recent CIS Poll Indicates PSOE Maintains Electoral Lead Despite Drop in Support
The latest barometer from the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) reveals that the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) would emerge victorious in upcoming elections, securing approximately 322 seats. This represents a significant lead of 38 points over the People's Party (PP), which is projected to attain around 284 seats should the elections be held today.
While the PSOE remains in a strong position, it has experienced a decline of 18 seats compared to the previous barometer. Meanwhile, the far-right Vox party is estimated to win 122 seats, followed closely by Sumar with 7 seats and Podemos, which would see an increase to 41 seats. Other parties in the mix include Se Acabó la Fiesta at 28 seats, and in the nationalist space, Junts is forecasted to receive 12 seats, a notch below ERC’s estimated 17 seats.
On the Basque front, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) is predicted to edge out EH Bildu by 12 to 11 seats, while the BNG is projected to hold approximately 0.9 seats. The Coalición Canaria and UPN are both expected to secure minimal representation, with estimates of 0.3 and 0.1 seats, respectively.
This current polling data shows a notable change from the November barometer, where the PSOE was also leading but with a closer margin of just 25 points over the PP and 34 seats total. The gap has evidently widened, with the PP's support having declined significantly in recent months.
With upcoming elections on the horizon, political dynamics in Spain are more critical than ever as parties strategize to appeal to a shifting electorate. The diminishing support for the PSOE indicates that despite leading the polls, the party may need to refine their approach to maintain their voter base and fend off challenges from the competition.
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