Recent CIS Polls Show PSOE Leading Over PP Amidst Political Turbulence in Spain
A recent poll conducted by the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) reveals that the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) holds a lead of more than five points over the People's Party (PP) in the event of general elections today. The March barometer, unveiled this Monday, indicates that both the PSOE and PP are experiencing a growth surge relative to last month.
The PSOE has increased its estimated voting intentions from 334 to 345, while the PP has risen from 281 to 292 votes. Notably, this growth has occurred despite criticism surrounding the PSOE's agreement with Junts to delegate certain migration competencies to Catalonia, a move that was previously exclusive to the State. The current estimation of 345 votes is the PSOE's highest in over six years, apart from the exceptional month in May 2024 when they achieved 355 votes.
In contrast, Podemos is facing significant challenges following accusations of sexual harassment against one of its founding members, Juan Carlos Monedero. The purple party, which had been gaining traction, has seen its vote estimation plummet from 44 to 38 in just one month, marking a decline of six-tenths.
However, the most considerable drop has been experienced by Vox, which has seen its projections drop sharply from 133 to 117 votes. This decline is attributed to the party's alignment with the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly concerning the war in Ukraine and trade tariffs.
Amidst these shifts, Yolanda Díaz's party, Sumar, appears to be the biggest beneficiary from the declines in both Podemos and Vox, surging from 64 to 76 votes—its strongest performance since September 2024. Additionally, Alvise Pérez's party, Se Acabó la fiesta, has also recorded an upward trend, rising three-tenths to reach 19 votes.
Regarding the independentist and nationalist parties, ERC remains in the lead with 17 votes, followed by Junts with 14, while the PNV has improved its standing to 11, surpassing Bildu, which holds at 0.9. The BNG shows stability at 0.8 votes.
Overall, the political landscape in Spain is witnessing notable fluctuations as parties navigate internal controversies and external pressures, with the PSOE currently capitalizing on this moment of turbulence.
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