Russia's Withdrawal from Syria: Signs of Military Drawdown at Hmeimim Air Base
Recent satellite images captured by Maxar Technologies indicate that Russia is systematically withdrawing military equipment from its Hmeimim air base in Syria. Analysis of the imagery from December 13 reveals the presence of at least two Antonov AN-124 cargo planes on the tarmac, with their nose cones opened, suggesting preparations for loading military equipment. Additionally, a nearby Ka-52 attack helicopter was observed being dismantled, likely in anticipation of transport, while parts of an S-400 air defense unit were also being prepared for departure.
Currently, Russia maintains an estimated 7,500 troops in Syria, in addition to several military sites, including the strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which have supported the Kremlin's operations in North and sub-Saharan Africa. This withdrawal comes in the wake of significant political shifts, including the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad by rebels, predominantly led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist militant group.
Reports and satellite imagery published earlier this week indicated that Russian naval vessels departed from the base at Tartus following the regime's fall. At least three ships, including two guided missile frigates, were observed approximately 13 kilometers off the coast. Despite the movement of vessels, the Tartus naval base—the only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub for Russia—remains largely unchanged, with two frigates still visible offshore as of December 13.
The Kremlin has asserted that its priority following Assad's regime collapse is to ensure the security of its military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) suggests an increasing trend of Moscow removing some of its military equipment. A drone video from the Hmeimim air base, dated December 12, depicts personnel with suitcases preparing to board planes. The footage also reveals a 91N6E radar system—a critical component for operating the S-300 and S-400 missile systems—ready for transport. Although these missile systems remain in place, signs indicate that their launchers are not currently in a state of combat readiness, a notable departure from prior images when they were fully prepared for action.
On the same day, a correspondent for The Times shared a video through social media that allegedly showed Russian equipment arriving at the Hmeimim air base. Analysts, including a researcher with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out that the increasing air traffic at Hmeimim, along with Russian ships en route, signifies that the troop withdrawal process is accelerating. However, whether this withdrawal will be partial or complete remains uncertain, as highlighted by Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the US think tank.
This ongoing situation underscores a critical juncture in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with the implications of Russia's military withdrawal still unfolding. With the balance of power in Syria shifting and external influences continuing to dilute, the international community watches closely as developments unfold.
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