September CIS Barometer Reveals PSOE's Dominance Amidst Political Turbulence
The September CIS barometer has designated the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) as the front-runner in the race for the upcoming general elections, commanding 33% of voter support. In a notable decline, the People's Party (PP) fell to 28.5%, dropping nearly three points when compared to the July barometer. Following them are Vox with 13.1%, Sumar at 7.8%, Podemos with 3.6%, and Se Acabó la Fiesta garnering 2.9% of the vote.
Amidst this political landscape, the strength of nationalist parties appears to be on the wane, particularly in Catalonia, where the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) has managed to eclipse Junts, securing 14% against their 13%. In Basque Country, EH Bildu continues to lead over the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) at 11% to 9%, while the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) holds a steady 8%.
This survey, conducted in the early days of September, coincided with the reawakening of the political climate following the summer recess. A key issue dominating discussions is regional financing, especially following the agreement between the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and ERC that paved the way for Salvador Illa to assume the presidency of the Generalitat in August. As the debate over amnesty concerning the 'procés' has settled, regional financing has emerged as a pressing topic on the political agenda.
Furthermore, the ongoing migration crisis and the situation in Venezuela have also captivated public attention, rounding off the most salient issues of this political season.
The September barometer is especially significant as it marks the first assessment since Illa’s investiture, alongside the recent political antics involving Carles Puigdemont, who managed to evade arrest by the Mossos d'Esquadra during a political event in Barcelona. This incident has led to a considerable crisis within the Catalan police forces.
In contrast, the previous barometer released in July indicated a robust lead for PSOE over PP, with support levels recorded at 32.9% versus 30.2% respectively. Vox was then positioned as the third force with 12.2%, while Sumar was on a downward spiral to 6.6%. Podemos appeared to absorb some of this decline with 4% and Se Acabó la Fiesta noted a rise to 2.7%.
Looking forward, the impact of the new socialist government in Catalonia will be under scrutiny, alongside the internal dynamics of the Catalan independence parties, particularly ERC, which previously held a slight advantage over Junts in terms of voter estimation.
Related Sources: