Shifting Political Landscape: The Rise of the AfD in Germany's Election Campaign
In the tumultuous German election campaign, which has been shaken by significant US interference, violent attacks, and growing concerns for the country’s political stability, all attention is focused on the party likely to finish in second place. As the dust settles after the recent vote, conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz is set to be elected chancellor, with the 2025 race marked as the moment the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), consistently polling in second place, transitioned from a fringe group to a pivotal player in German politics.
Originally founded as a party opposed to eurozone bailout packages, the AfD has evolved over the past 12 years into a more radical movement, capitalizing on anti-migrant sentiments and integrating elements of neo-Nazi ideology into its ranks. Alice Weidel, the party's first chancellor candidate, criticized the state law and order for allowing a flow of new arrivals at the border, asserting that this issue began with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and has persisted under the current government.
Historically, Germany has constructed its postwar identity—with considerable American assistance—around the idea of preventing far-right parties like the AfD from achieving power. However, endorsements from influential figures such as Tesla’s Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance, who recently met with the AfD leader in Munich, have bolstered the party’s standing.
Despite other political factions vowing to reject collaboration with the AfD—a party under surveillance by security agencies for suspected extremism—the AfD has shifted the political debate towards its core issues. Recent analysis by Die Zeit reveals that even the left-leaning parties have adopted the AfD's rhetoric on topics like immigration and crime, largely sidelining discussions on economic instability, the climate crisis, and European security.
Many AfD supporters, encountered during a campaign trail by The Guardian, expressed frustration over the mass demonstrations opposing their party, repeatedly asserting, 'We are not Nazis.' However, phrases once considered extreme, such as calls for remigration and mass deportations, have become common within AfD discussions. Riding a wave of populism seen in other European nations, the AfD appears poised to tally as much as one in five votes as it spreads from its strongholds in the east into the western regions.
The unwritten rule known as the 'firewall'—which has traditionally kept mainstream parties from allying with the far-right—might succeed in preventing the AfD from gaining power directly. Merz emphasized during a televised debate that he would not form any coalition with the AfD, which hints at the possibility of the party becoming the largest opposition force, dramatically influencing coalition negotiations and government spending decisions.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats are currently polling in third place, has called upon voters to reject the AfD, championing Germany’s post-Nazi tradition of denouncing extreme right politics. Meanwhile, Weidel’s presence in high-profile debates signals a widening acceptance of the AfD’s viewpoints, even as she denounces comparisons to the Nazi party as scandalous.
The far right, historically slow to gain traction in Germany due to the haunting memories of the Nazi era, saw a change in fortunes after the influx of refugees in 2015, which added pressure on local resources and heightened public sentiment against immigrants. Despite acknowledging the need for stringent immigration controls, Merz has been criticized for bending to AfD pressures in Parliament, particularly regarding proposals following aggressive incidents blamed on asylum seekers.
As the AfD continues to capture the sentiments of a pessimistic public faced with economic difficulties, political analysts are questioning how far the country might swing to the right. While some in the mainstream label Trump as unpopular in Germany, the rising tide of the AfD indicates significant discontent among citizens about the current political landscape and a desire for drastic changes. With the next elections looming, centrist parties face the urgent need to address citizens' pressing concerns or risk losing ground to the ascendant far-right.
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