Slovak Prime Minister Considers Retaliation Against Ukraine Amid Gas Supply Dispute
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has raised the possibility of retaliatory measures against Ukraine after the country halted the flow of Russian gas through its territory. In a recent video message shared on Facebook, Fico suggested that his Smer party might consider cutting electricity supplies to Ukraine and reducing aid for Ukrainian refugees in Slovakia.
According to Reuters, Slovakia exported 24 million megawatt hours of electricity to Ukraine in the first 11 months of 2024 alone, significantly assisting the war-torn nation in overcoming energy shortages caused by persistent Russian bombardments of its infrastructure.
This escalation of tensions comes on the heels of Ukraine's New Year's Day announcement that it would stop the transport of Russian gas to Europe via its land, a decision that Fico has described as an act of sabotage by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Fico has indicated that a Slovak delegation will discuss this situation in Brussels next Tuesday, which could lead to his ruling coalition determining the next steps.
Fico stated, "I declare my Smer-SD party is ready to debate and agree in the coalition on halting supplies of electricity and significantly lowering support for Ukrainian citizens in Slovakia." He added that Slovakia's only alternative would be to renew the gas transit arrangement or to seek compensation mechanisms to recoup the estimated loss of nearly 500 million euros in public finances resulting from the halt.
The fallout from Ukraine's decision is expected to be significant; while it will cost Ukraine approximately 800 million euros annually in lost transit fees, Russian gas giant Gazprom is projected to face losses nearing 5 billion euros due to the reduction in gas sales.
Fico has previously warned that halting Russian gas transit through Ukraine would lead to higher gas and electricity prices throughout Europe, affecting the EU more than Russia. His relationship with Russia appears to be strengthening, as Fico was hosted by President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 22—the first visit to the Kremlin by an EU leader since the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Fico's views sharply contrast with those of most European leaders, as he has abandoned military aid to Ukraine and pledged to block the country's NATO ambitions while also expressing criticism of EU sanctions against Russia. This divergence has heightened the complexities of the European response to the ongoing conflict and energy crisis in the region.
As the situation evolves, it remains to be seen how Slovakia's potential actions may influence broader geopolitical relations in Europe and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
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