Spain's Weather Patterns Indicate a Warmer Future: AEMET Report on Winter 2024
The State Agency of Meteorology (AEMET) has released its report on the autumn of 2024, highlighting a season that has been notably warmer and rainier than usual. As we prepare for winter, which commences on December 21, the outlook is less than encouraging. For the past 14 years, winters in Spain have consistently experienced rising temperatures, and predictions suggest that this trend will continue in the upcoming months.
AEMET forecasts above-normal temperatures across Spain, with some regions likely to face below-average precipitation, particularly in the northwest and southern areas. However, experts caution that it is still early for precise predictions about the months ahead. The agency indicated that the most probable scenario is warmer-than-usual conditions throughout the country, especially along coastal areas and the archipelagos.
In terms of rainfall, the report brings forth significant uncertainty, which is common when forecasting this particular parameter. There is a 40 to 50 percent likelihood that many parts of Spain will experience autumn with less rain than usual. The Mediterranean region shows no distinct trend, further complicating overall predictions. It’s worth noting that this year has been marked as one of the warmest on record, currently holding the third position in the national ranking. Worldwide, the Copernicus climate monitoring system has already proclaimed 2024 will set the record for the hottest year ever documented.
These findings reinforce the patterns observed in recent years, showcasing the persistent effects of climate change on Spain’s climate. Looking at seasonal forecasts for meteorological winter, which encompasses December, January, and February, it appears that temperatures will generally exceed normal levels across the country, particularly in coastal regions and the islands.
AEMET also reported that this year's autumn has been among the warmest and most humid since records began in 1961. The Iberian Peninsula registered an average temperature of 15.5°C, which is 1.1°C above the norm for the reference period from 1991 to 2020. This autumn ranks as the seventh warmest recorded and the sixth warmest of the 21st century. Although September was relatively cooler, with it being the second cold month of 2024 following June, October was warm, and November proved to be exceptionally warm, marking the warmest November on record with temperatures 2.8°C above normal.
Precipitation levels were also above average during autumn, averaging 236.5 l/m², which is 118 percent of the normal value. October stood out as the wettest month in the historical series, while November was the second driest month of the 21st century, only surpassed by 2004.
Weather events such as the intense DANA (depression at high levels) at the end of October and subsequent torrential rains in early November significantly impacted regions of the eastern peninsula and the Mediterranean. Extraordinary precipitation levels were recorded, including an impressive 144.2 l/m² in just 24 hours at Barcelona Airport.
As climate change continues to reshape winter patterns, the implications for Spain's weather, agriculture, and ecosystems become increasingly concerning. While AEMET’s predictions provide some insight, the uncertainty surrounding precipitation underscores the challenges ahead. With warmer temperatures becoming the norm rather than the exception, adaptation becomes imperative as the country faces the reality of a changing climate.
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