Spanish Government Faces Critical Budget Vote Amidst Legal Turmoil

This Thursday, the Spanish Government is poised for a significant plenary session in the Congress of Deputies as it tackles the 2026 budget and the associated stability path. However, the mood is heavy with uncertainty, as all signs indicate that the stability path—crucial for preparing next year’s budget—is likely to face rejection. Opposition parties, including the PP, Vox, and Junts, have united against it, while Podemos plans to abstain from voting. The Government has indicated it will negotiate the stability path until the last possible moment, even as they brace for potential defeat in a session that also includes votes on more favorable measures, particularly the validation of an urgent royal decree aimed at addressing the damage caused by the recent DANA weather event. Complicating matters, this plenary session coincides with a high-profile hearing at the Supreme Court concerning former socialist minister José Luis Ábalos and his former advisor, Koldo García. Both face the possibility of preventive imprisonment linked to their involvement in the Koldo case—a scandal surrounding mask trafficking during the pandemic. The stakes are incredibly high as they navigate legal peril while also operating within the political framework. Ábalos and García's predicament has sparked speculation of a potential strategy involving a coordinated warning to the Government about potential revelations if they are incarcerated. This strategy appears to include public accusations and controversy surrounding a supposed meeting between Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Bildu leader Arnaldo Otegi, which Ábalos claims took place contrary to the denials from Sánchez and Otegi. As the legal proceedings unfold, Ábalos confronted Second Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, who labeled him a ‘rascal’ in a social media retort, suggesting Hernández's comments about possible unauthorized use of ministerial housing during the pandemic were unfounded. Such exchanges only add fuel to the ongoing political fire surrounding the case. Legal experts are closely observing the forthcoming decision from Judge Leopoldo Puente, summoned by the Prosecutors Office and other popular accusations that have suggested severe penalties. They have recommended prison sentences of 30 years for each, while the Prosecutor is seeking 24 years for Ábalos and 19 years and six months for García. With both facing significant accusations, the suspense of the judge's rulings looms large as they prepare for their court appearances. While they manage their legal risks, another character in the scandal, Víctor de Aldama—a commissioner accused of corruption—has also been implicated in this intricate web. Although he could testify without facing immediate repercussions, the stakes remain high, especially given that he has reportedly provided financial support to García in exchange for favorable influence. As the hearing dates approach, both Ábalos and García, still engulfed in political chaos, will need to navigate the crossroads of impending legal ramifications and their continuing roles within the Government. Their fate, along with the budget vote, could significantly shift the landscape of Spanish politics as the country enters the final phase of the year. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2