Staggering Casualties and Stalled Advances: The Ongoing Toll of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In a somber report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), it is estimated that the number of Russian and Ukrainian troops who have been killed, wounded, or gone missing in nearly four years of war may reach a staggering 2 million by this spring. This alarming figure comes as Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows no signs of abating, and reflects the immense human cost of the ongoing conflict. CSIS estimates that Russia could have suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths. Meanwhile, close to 600,000 Ukrainian troops are reported to have been killed, wounded, or gone missing. Since the onset of the full-scale invasion by President Vladimir Putin, both sides have refrained from releasing comprehensive and transparent casualty figures, treating such sensitive information as state secrets. The Kremlin's response to the CSIS report has been one of dismissal, labeling it as 'not credible' and emphasizing that only the Russian defense ministry has the authority to publish casualty figures for Russia. The CSIS analysis is based on interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials, as well as data gathered by the independent Russian outlet Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service. The report highlights that, by any historical standard, the losses incurred during this conflict are extraordinary. The think tank found that Russian battlefield fatalities in Ukraine are more than 17 times higher than Soviet losses in Afghanistan during the 1980s, 11 times higher than those in Russia's first and second Chechen wars, and more than five times greater than all Russian and Soviet conflicts combined since World War II. The estimated ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties stands at approximately 2.5 to 1, yet the figures present a grim outlook for Ukraine due to its smaller population and constrained capability to absorb ongoing losses and mobilize troops. To replenish its ranks, Moscow has turned to providing generous pay and a range of benefits for new recruits, with regional authorities offering enlistment bonuses that can amount to tens of thousands of dollars. Additionally, the Kremlin has sought to recruit thousands of men from Asia, South America, and Africa, often luring them with misleading promises or applying pressure to join. Conversely, Ukraine is struggling to mobilize sufficient troops to replace its depleted units. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has resisted calls to lower the age of mobilization below 25, a decision that has proven to be deeply unpopular among the domestic population. Despite the heavy toll on both sides, Russia's territorial gains have been minimal. According to the CSIS report, since 2024, Russian military forces have advanced at an average rate of just 15 to 70 meters per day during their most significant offensives, a pace considered slower than nearly any major military campaign in modern history. Although Moscow achieved some territorial advances near the Dnipropetrovsk region and elsewhere late last year, progress has since sharply declined, hindered by winter weather and fierce Ukrainian resistance. Data from the Ukrainian monitoring organization DeepState reveals that Russian forces managed to capture only 152 square kilometers (58 square miles) of Ukrainian territory between January 1 and 25, marking the slowest rate of territorial advance since March of the previous year. Last weekend, representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. convened in Abu Dhabi for their first peace talks since the conflict escalated. However, there was no indication of any breakthroughs, as the Kremlin continues to assert its maximalist demands regarding Ukrainian territory. As the conflict drags on, the wounds of war deepen, and the prospects for resolution remain uncertain. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2 • Source 3