Strategic Bombings: Russia's Coordinated Attacks on Ukraine During Peace Talks

According to a recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia's most intense bombings against Ukraine have occurred around the time of peace negotiations and discussions with the United States. The Washington-based think tank has closely reviewed the pattern of Russian attacks targeting Ukraine's electricity and heating infrastructure over the past year, revealing a disturbing correlation between diplomatic talks and a surge in violent assaults. In the lead-up to a crucial meeting in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine in May 2025, Russian bombings decreased notably for about a week. However, this calm was deceptive, as subsequent days saw a dramatic increase in assaults on Ukraine. The same pattern emerged during follow-up discussions in early June. Moreover, significant violence ensued following the first summit in years between President Trump and President Putin in Alaska, where they addressed the conflict. This recent tendency to increase attacks post-discussion has also been observed after recent trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. in Abu Dhabi. During a visit to a devastated Ukrainian energy facility this week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte witnessed firsthand the destruction wrought by these ongoing Russian campaigns. In response to the dire humanitarian situation, President Trump made a request to Putin during discussions to refrain from attacking Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, especially given the harsh winter conditions in Ukraine by the end of January. Despite this plea, reports emerged detailing ongoing assaults across various Ukrainian cities, leading Trump to assert that Putin had adhered to his word, albeit for just a week. As conditions worsened, airstrikes intensified again following the negotiations, with ISW indicating that Russia might be employing the reprieve to prepare for larger, more destructive attacks using stockpiled drones and missiles. ISW's analysis portrays the Kremlin as disingenuous; while projecting a façade of accommodating cooperation, they seem intent on maximizing the suffering among the Ukrainian populace. The trends and data in their recent report highlight an alarming strategic play on Russia's part. Maksym Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine's largest energy company, DTEK, noted that Russia's actions are systematically dismantling what remains of Ukraine's energy system. The ongoing electricity crisis, characterized by the targeted strikes against crucial infrastructure, threatens to evolve into an even larger humanitarian disaster. Reports show that between January 29 and February 7, Russia unleashed over 800 projectiles against Ukraine's electricity and heating systems, with a majority being drones and about 100 missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force has identified that more than half of these drones were Shahed models, extensively produced and supplied by Iran. Recent attacks signify that Russia is using negotiation periods to enhance the capacity of these drones with additional munitions like mines and cluster bombs, further endangering civilian lives. According to Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine's Energy Minister, high-voltage stations in numerous regions, including Lviv, Vinnytsia, and Rivne, have become prime targets. Consequently, the electricity supply across Ukraine is unstable, with Kyiv experiencing widespread blackouts amid frigid winter temperatures, leaving many residents without power. For those with limited electricity access, power interruptions only provide a few hours of service throughout the day, effectively underscoring the pressing nature of this ongoing conflict. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2