Strategies to Counter Putin: Preparing for a Post-Dictatorship Era

No dictator lasts forever; one day Vladimir Putin will be gone. Recent reports suggest growing weakness in the Russian economy, discontent in society, and a waning of confidence within his regime. However, it would be foolish to conclude that the end is near. Only death or Russia can depose Putin, and nobody knows when or how that will happen. What democracies in Europe and beyond can do is hone a strategy to counteract his external ambitions. Here’s a non-exhaustive list of elements that should shape such a strategy. 1. **Have a Clear Purpose**: Putin aims to subjugate Ukraine, restore as much of the Russian empire as possible, destroy NATO's credibility, undermine the European Union, and reestablish a Russian sphere of influence over Eastern Europe. To prevent him from achieving these goals is to defeat him. 2. **Stay the Course with Ukraine**: As of June 11, Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine will have lasted longer than World War I. Ukraine's achievement in holding off a much larger adversary is remarkable. Given the drone-enabled technologies on the frontline, it is unlikely this war will be decided at the front lines alone; both sides are attacking each other’s rear operations, targeting energy infrastructure, economies, and morale. The withdrawal of U.S. support during Trump's presidency has complicated the defense of Ukraine, but it hasn't crippled it. The recent fall of Viktor Orbán in Hungary has opened avenues for significant European economic support, which should sustain Ukraine's budget through 2027. While various outcomes are possible, the war is likely to persist for an extended period. 3. **Increase Economic Pressure on Russia**: The unintended consequences of previous foreign policies, particularly Trump's actions towards Iran, have inadvertently bolstered Russia's oil revenues. To truly defeat Putin, it’s crucial to tighten sanctions, support Ukraine’s efforts to strike at Russian energy infrastructure, and crack down on Russia's shadow fleet, which has been circumventing sanctions and facilitating oil exports. 4. **Deter Another Russian Attack**: The highest risk of a Russian attack on NATO and EU territory likely arises during the early years of the transition towards European security independence. Putin, with his battle-hardened army and a war economy, may view this transitional period as an opportunity to demonstrate that NATO is vulnerable. While the probability of such an attack is low, the risks are significant enough to warrant enhanced deterrence strategies. If US involvement cannot be relied upon, European forces must be prepared to collectively deter potential assaults on Eastern European states. 5. **Counter Russia's Hybrid Warfare**: Responding to the scale of Russia's hybrid warfare efforts in Europe shouldn't be purely defensive. Instead, strategies should aim to disrupt and, when feasible, adopt offensive measures to counteract Russian influence. 6. **Engage in Dialogue with Various Russian Constituencies**: Maintaining open channels of communication with the Kremlin, while challenging, is necessary. However, the more impactful discourse may be with distinct Russian groups, including business elites, professionals, and the diaspora opposing Putin’s regime. This engagement can cultivate a vision for a different relationship with Russia post-Putin, planting the seeds for change in the long term. 7. **Be Vigilant Against Nationalist Movements**: Putin currently lacks substitutes for Hungary's Orbán as an ally in European decision-making. However, the rise of populist nationalist parties across Europe poses a substantial threat to a unified front against Putin’s ambitions. Keeping these factions at bay is crucial to maintaining a coherent and effective European strategy. 8. **Adopt Strategic Patience**: Historical studies suggest that one of the most effective ways to counter threats is to ensure the strength and attractiveness of one’s own society. Political changes in Russia could manifest at any moment, but the essential challenge is fostering strategic patience amongst diverse liberal democracies. Only by ensuring that the societies opposing Putin are resilient can we be confident that time is ultimately on our side. In conclusion, while Putin's ambitions pose significant challenges, a coordinated and strategic approach among democracies could pave the way for a new chapter post-Putin. The key lies in a blend of military preparedness, economic pressure, resilience against internal divides, and long-term political strategies that consider the complexities of Russian society. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2