Strengthening Ties: Starmer and Macron Seek to Revive UK-France Relations Amid Uncertain Global Landscape

As Keir Starmer welcomes Emmanuel Macron to Britain for a landmark state visit aimed at building closer ties between London and Paris, the future of the nations' £100 billion trading relationship comes sharply into focus. Over three days of talks, culminating in the 37th Franco-British summit on Thursday, much of the attention will center on cross-Channel issues, particularly migration, amid expectations for a new deal addressing small boat crossings. However, cooperation on business, trade, defense, and security in a shifting global landscape will also be at the forefront. After the upheaval caused by Brexit, both leaders are eager to turn the page on years of simmering tension and showcase a united front in the wake of Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies. Macron will be hosted by King Charles at Windsor Castle, with a formal address to Parliament on Tuesday and a lavish banquet at Guildhall in the City of London on Wednesday. The last time a French head of state visited Britain officially was 17 years ago when Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy conveyed a similar message at Arsenal's Emirates Stadium, emphasizing cooperation as the way to overcome the 2008 global financial crisis. This time, however, international relations are considerably more strained. Trump's administration has destabilized the post-war Western economic and security consensus, posing threats and demanding European countries take greater responsibility within NATO. Much hangs in the balance as France ranks as the UK’s fifth-largest trading partner, with about 6% of Britain's global trade total reliant on goods and services exchanged across the Channel. Following Starmer's EU reset deal with Brussels in May, business leaders in both countries hope that Macron’s visit will pave the way for repairing the damage inflicted by Brexit. While some agreements were reached during the recent EU summit, discussions with Macron will focus on the specifics of implementation. Françoise Rausch, president of the Franco-British Chamber of Commerce, pointed to the ongoing challenges post-Brexit, stating, "It has been quite tough on both sides. But now Brexit is behind us. We are two big countries, leaders in Europe, and we need each other. We are stronger when we collaborate and strengthen our partnership." Brexit has already triggered a notable drop in UK exports to the EU, with losses of £27 billion in the first two years alone, causing significant issues for cross-Channel trade. Although trade volumes have improved, UK goods exports to the EU still remain below pre-Brexit levels, despite better performance in services exports. Rausch credited Rishi Sunak’s visit to Paris in 2023 as a turning point in mending relations after years of friction. Close ties with France could potentially allow Starmer to unlock further progress with Brussels, with economists emphasizing the significance of this visit for easing trading relationships across Europe. Trade patterns reveal that the UK imports more from France than it exports, leading to a trade deficit of nearly £12 billion last year. Notably, the UK is a key market for French wines, consuming nearly 30 million bottles of champagne annually, alongside luxury goods and agricultural products. Services comprise about half of the UK’s exports, which include professional consulting, finance, and IT, while significant exports also include mechanical generators, cars, and aircraft components. The importance of civil nuclear cooperation will also be on the agenda, harkening back to Brown and Sarkozy's 2006 accord. With substantial investments underway in nuclear projects like Sizewell C, supported by the French state-owned energy company EDF, this aspect of collaboration is anticipated as a continuation of previous agreements. In light of the current geopolitical backdrop, defense collaboration is set to be a significant topic, especially as European leaders respond to pressure from Trump regarding NATO defense spending. After a recent agreement with Brussels that allows British firms to partake in the EU’s planned €150 billion security fund, enhancing cross-Channel defense capabilities is expected to be explored further. Despite the pomp of the state visit, there remain nuanced challenges in the background. Starmer's strategy has leaned towards maintaining close ties with Trump's administration while also striving for rapprochement with Brussels, which could potentially create friction with Macron, who has adopted a firmer stance toward the U.S. president. As the French president embarks on his state visit, he will do so ahead of Trump, who is anticipated to visit the UK in autumn. While the U.S. remains the UK’s largest trading partner, valued at over £300 billion, the intertwined economic relations between Britain and France highlight the pressing need for cooperation on the European continent as uncertainties loom under Trump's administration. Business leaders underscore that the current geopolitical climate necessitates stronger alliances. Rausch noted, "The uncertainties created by the U.S. administration are detrimental to business. What's happening globally, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, emphasizes the need for Europe to lead in protecting its sovereignty. That is why the UK and France are bigger allies than ever before." Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2