Tensions Escalate: Israel's Military Options Against Iran in Response to Regional Attacks
In recent weeks, the Israeli military has ramped up its operations against Hezbollah, culminating in airstrikes in Beirut that killed 18 individuals — marking one of the worst assaults in the West Bank in decades. As the aftermath unfolds, the specter of a broader conflict looms, particularly with Iran as a primary target.
Following these events, discussions have intensified regarding potential Israeli responses to Iranian provocations. Options on the table include military strikes against Iran's missile and drone networks, economic attacks on oil infrastructures, or even sophisticated assassinations.
Military experts suggest that if Israel opts to strike Iran, it could focus on the intricate network of missile and drone bases hidden deep underground. These bases are fortified and designed to withstand conventional weaponry, raising concerns about the effectiveness of direct military assaults. Additionally, Israel may expand its campaign against Iranian air defenses, particularly those protecting critical locations like ports in the Persian Gulf.
Conversely, targeting Iran's economic infrastructure, particularly its oil terminals and refineries, is also being considered. The Kharg oil terminal, which accounts for 90% of Iran's crude exports, and the Abadan refinery, crucial for domestic oil supply, stand out as strategic objectives. Striking these facilities could yield long-term ramifications for Iran's economy, which is already under significant strain due to sanctions.
However, such economic strikes risk being perceived as disproportionate, especially following Iran's missile attack on Israeli air bases, which resulted in some damage but thankfully no casualties. Iranian military leaders, like General Mohammad Bagheri, have warned that any attack on their economic assets would be met with severe retaliation.
A third approach would involve expanding Israel’s targeted assassination efforts against Iranian officials, similar to past operations that successfully eliminated key figures in Iran's nuclear program. Despite the risks involved with such operations, they remain a plausible option for Israel in the face of growing threats from Tehran.
Despite Joe Biden's administration advocating for caution, geopolitical analysts believe that the likelihood of aggressive Israeli action remains high, particularly with insufficient efforts made to de-escalate tensions. As the conflict deepens, the balance of power in the region hangs in peril, making the stakes ever higher for both Israel and Iran.
With military, economic, and covert options on the table, the question remains: what will the next steps be in this ongoing conflict, and at what cost?
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