Tensions Escalate: The Aftermath of Ukraine's Drone Attack on Russia's Bomber Fleet
Vladimir Putin's threat of retaliation against Ukraine for its recent drone attack on Russia's bomber fleet looms large, yet tangible responses have not fully materialized despite intense bombardments of Kharkiv and Kyiv in recent days. U.S. officials have indicated that a significant and multi-faceted strike from Russia could be on the horizon. One senior Western diplomat warned of a potentially devastating and relentless offensive from Moscow.
Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, posited that Russia might target Ukraine's Security Service, known as the SBU, which was behind last weekend's operation. Kofman suggested that Russia's retaliation could include the use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles and attacks on defense manufacturing sites. However, he also noted that Russia's capacity to escalate its operations has limitations, given its sustained military engagement in Ukraine over the past month.
Operation Spiderweb, the Ukrainian drone strike, has reportedly damaged approximately ten of Russia's strategic bombers, with significant impacts on aircraft being readied for assaults on Ukraine, according to a German military analysis. Major General Christian Freuding detailed on a recent podcast that over a dozen strategic bombers, including TU95 and TU22, as well as A50 surveillance planes, were hit. He emphasized the rarity of A50 planes, many of which can no longer serve or be used for spare parts.
Despite these losses, Freuding did not anticipate an immediate decrease in Russian strikes against Ukraine. Moscow retains around 90% of its strategic bomber fleet, capable of launching both ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as conducting bombing missions. However, the operational demands on the remaining aircraft could accelerate wear and tear, leading to a psychological impact on the Russian military's perception of safety.
Russia has historically felt secure within its vast borders, which, Freuding argues, explains the lack of robust protections for its aircraft. This perception has shifted following Ukraine's successful drone operation, prompting Russia to enhance its security measures.
In parallel, both Russia and Ukraine have exchanged mutual accusations regarding the postponement of a large-scale prisoner exchange that was allegedly agreed upon last week. Kyiv has denied Russian claims of indefinite delays, asserting that Moscow is engaging in deceptive tactics. In talks held in Istanbul, both parties agreed to release over 1,000 individuals from each side, while Russia has stated it would return the remains of 6,000 deceased Ukrainian soldiers.
The Russian defense ministry conveyed that it had provided Ukraine with a list of 640 names involved in the exchange, but Ukraine has not yet committed to a date for their return or for transferring an equivalent number of Russian prisoners of war. Furthermore, Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War dismissed the idea that any timeline had been established for this exchange, citing discrepancies with the terms discussed in the agreement. Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's national security and defense council, has asserted that the Russian claims do not align with reality.
As tensions remain high, the focus now shifts onto Russia's potential retaliation and the unfolding dynamics surrounding the ongoing conflict.
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