The Battle for Aleppo: A Turning Point in the Syrian Conflict?
Reports indicate a significant shift in the Syrian conflict as units of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist rebel group, have launched an offensive in the northwest of the country, seemingly breaking through the front lines and arriving within six kilometers of Aleppo. This marks a notable development in a region where front lines have remained relatively unchanged for years. The HTS fighters currently control the province of Idlib, situated near the Turkish border, which is also occupied by Turkish military forces.
On Wednesday, HTS, alongside other rebel factions, initiated a coordinated assault against the regime forces loyal to the dictator Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that they successfully captured several towns, villages, and a significant military base in the ongoing conflict. The implications of this offensive raise questions about Assad's grip on power—especially considering Aleppo's pivotal role in the Syrian war's trajectory.
The city of Aleppo, which was a divided battleground between 2013 and 2017, has immense significance for Assad. Following a prolonged and brutal siege, Russian support enabled Assad to reclaim control, making it clear that the outcome of the war would not cost him his position. Aleppo's value extends beyond its immediate geography; it represents a focal point for Assad's ambitions to regain control over the entire country. Even today, the city remains surrounded by areas that have eluded his authority, including Idlib in the west, Turkish-controlled territories to the north, and regions held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
In recent months, Assad appears to have adopted new military strategies, influenced by tactics utilized in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Analyst Charles Lister suggests that Assad has intensified drone warfare in Idlib, deploying hundreds of kamikaze drones since the summer. This approach appears to be aimed at demoralizing the opposition and compelling them to surrender after years of relentless conflict. As millions of displaced Syrians continue to seek refuge in Idlib, the regime's operations are focused on undermining their will to resist.
Despite previous accusations of war crimes, including the use of chemical weapons against his population, Assad's position has reportedly strengthened as he re-establishes ties with regional players, including Turkey's President Erdoğan. European voices have also started to advocate for dialogue with Assad, primarily as a means to facilitate the deportation of Syrian refugees. Meanwhile, he has strategically distanced himself from further entanglements, particularly conflicts involving Israel and Iran, possibly to reduce tensions among the remaining power factions in Syria.
The ongoing volatility in Syria has not diminished, as evidenced by recent military actions. The US military targeted an arms depot linked to pro-Iran militias, while Israel conducted strikes on Hezbollah supply routes along the Syrian-Lebanese border. Additionally, engagements between the SDF and Turkey-aligned fighters highlight the multifaceted nature of the conflict, with repeated Turkish airstrikes escalating tensions further.
The future trajectory of the fighting in Idlib remains uncertain. Key questions loom regarding the advancement of HTS fighters and the potential response from Turkey and its allies. While the offensive could conclude swiftly, there is a significant possibility of an extended conflict that could alter the region's dynamics once again. An HTS commander has articulated the offensive as a direct response to the Assad regime's drone strikes, indicating a preparedness to preemptively counter any large-scale assault initiated by Assad.
As the situation unfolds, it becomes increasingly evident that the fate of Aleppo—not just of the city but of broader Syrian governance—hangs in the balance.
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