The Battle for Homs: A Crucial Turning Point in the Syrian Conflict
In Syria, all eyes are on Homs, a pivotal city with a population nearing 800,000, located in the heart of the country. For rebel forces advancing from the north, Homs represents their last significant hurdle before making a move towards the capital, Damascus.
Recent reports from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights suggested that Bashar al-Assad's troops had retreated from Homs, following the pattern observed in Aleppo and Hama. However, those claims have been deemed misleading as government forces remain entrenched in the city while militants from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have paused their advance at the northern outskirts.
Strategically, Homs is critical in the context of the ongoing war in Syria. The Assad regime’s strongest strongholds are in Damascus and Latakia—a coastal city with a military port—separated by approximately 330 kilometers of vital roadways. Should the rebels capture Homs, they would effectively split the territory controlled by Assad's regime into two isolated, fortified enclaves, making them more susceptible to insurgent attacks.
Homs is also strategically located at the intersection of two of the regime's most essential highways: the M5, which connects the north and south, and the M1, which serves coastal territories loyal to Assad. Recent skirmishes have seen armed groups positioning themselves near Homs’s northern bypass, keeping a close watch. If they succeed in reaching the southern bypass, they would disrupt vital connections between Damascus and Latakia, although complete control of the routes is still some way off.
But the implications of Homs extend beyond mere logistics; they touch upon the psychological resilience of Assad’s army. Soldiers wary of their crumbling fortunes are scrutinizing each other’s resolve. A retreat from Homs could signal a significant breach of morale among troops, potentially indicating that they no longer believe in the regime’s capacity to prevail. In contrast, if they hold their ground, it may suggest a belief that the momentum against the rebels can still be halted.
Homs also carries historical weight. Back in 2011, the city was a hotbed of protests against the Assad regime, which responded with brutal repression. During the siege of rebel-held neighborhoods, two foreign journalists tragically lost their lives, marking a dark chapter in the city’s modern history. Since 2012, Homs has remained firmly under Assad’s control.
Recently, however, the time-tested alliance between the Assad regime and Iran appears to be shifting. Reports have emerged of Iranian military personnel and diplomats being ordered to return home. Mehdi Rahmati, an Iranian analyst, stated that Iran's withdrawal is a reflection of the diminishing willingness of the Syrian army to fight, further complicating Assad's military position.
On the diplomatic front, officials from Egypt and Jordan have allegedly urged Assad to resign and establish an exile government—a veiled invitation for him to acknowledge defeat and preserve his life.
Meanwhile, in southern Syria, especially in Daraa, former rebel groups who had previously reconciled with the regime are once again taking up arms. The deterioration of this fragile peace suggests that these groups no longer fear retaliation, indicating a declining influence of the Assad regime over its once-controlled territories. Today, the rebels have successfully advanced towards Izraa, a town approximately 80 kilometers from Damascus.
The discontent has also reached al-Suwayda, home to a significant Druze population. The Druze, a religious minority that the Assad regime has positioned itself as the protector of, have shown signs of rebellion against the regime, signaling another fracture in the once-strict hold on power.
In eastern Syria, the regime has seemingly ceded control of the Deir Ezzor region to Kurdish forces, as reported by the Euphrates Post. The regime's withdrawal underscores a broader strategic retreat, as it reallocates troops to Damascus for defensive purposes. This shift belies the frailty of Assad's military position, especially given that Al Bukamal—a key border crossing for Iranian-backed militias—will no longer facilitate their entry into Syria to support the regime.
As the situation in Homs evolves, it will serve as a bellwether for the Assad regime’s future and the ongoing struggle between governmental forces and insurgent groups. The developments in this city could very well steer the trajectory of the Syrian conflict in the months to come.
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