The Battle for Undecided Voters: Trump and Harris in a Tight Race
With the presidential election scheduled for November 5, the political landscape is increasingly competitive, highlighted by national polls showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump essentially tied. Even more telling are the results from seven battleground states, where the candidates are separated by only a few percentage points. As the election approaches, one group of voters could be pivotal: the undecided.
Renowned journalist Ronald Brownstein, writing for The Atlantic, delineates two categories of undecided voters. The first group, referred to as "persuadables," consists of individuals who intend to vote for a candidate but have not yet made a final decision. The second group encompasses "irregular voters," who are unsure not about whom to support but rather about whether they should vote at all. Gaining a precise understanding of the undecided electorate proves challenging, as variations exist amongst different polling data.
According to the latest surveys from the New York Times/Siena College, about 37% of the electorate in the battleground states—including North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—are undecided voters, which amounts to around 12 million individuals. While this number seems relatively small compared to the overall 244 million potential voters in the U.S., it is significant enough to impact the election outcome.
The demographic makeup of these undecided voters is noteworthy; many are young, nonwhite individuals without a college degree. Notably, 21% of undecided voters in battleground states identify as Black, a demographic historically leaning Democratic but increasingly shifting towards the Republican Party in recent years. Recent efforts by Harris have been aimed at winning over these crucial Black voters.
An early October poll by New York Times/Siena College reveals that one of the primary deterrents for undecided voters leaning toward Trump is his personality—described by some as arrogant and unpredictable. Additionally, Trump’s approach has been characterized as chaotic and dysfunctional. Conversely, doubts about Kamala Harris center around questions of her honesty, reliability, and capability to manage economic issues.
In recent months, both Harris and Trump's campaign teams have intensified their efforts to connect with undecided voters. Analysts associated with Harris’s campaign have developed a contactability score for each undecided voter in battleground states, which serves to estimate the difficulty of reaching them and strategize accordingly. Trump's team, on the other hand, suggests that about 5% of the electorate within battleground states remains undecided, many of whom are facing economic hardships, working multiple jobs, and earning significantly less—about $15,000—compared to those who have made up their minds.
Economy and rising costs are the primary concerns for many national voters, including the undecided group. Some potential voters acknowledge that their financial situation was better during Trump’s presidency from 2016 to 2020, despite personal reservations about the candidate himself.
Harris’s campaign claims to have the potential to convince approximately 10% of the undecided voters in battleground states. This includes many women who previously favored Republican candidates but have become disenchanted with Trump's policies, particularly regarding abortion, a hot-button issue this election cycle.
Irregular voters, especially those questioning whether to vote, often do not engage with politics through traditional media sources like newspapers or television. To reach these audiences, both candidates have participated in diverse media formats in recent weeks—numerous podcasts, interviews, and town halls—aiming to connect with voters outside the traditional campaign framework. Recently, Harris appeared on high-profile podcasts like "Call Her Daddy"—popular among young women—and "The Breakfast Club"—a favorite among young Black Americans. Trump's outreach included an appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast, "The Joe Rogan Experience," known for its appeal to male listeners and discussions surrounding cultural issues. He also conducted a town hall on Univision, addressing concerns of undecided Latin American voters, another demographic at play.
In this uncertain political climate, the outcome of the presidential election may very well hinge on the decisions of these undecided voters, making them a critical focus for both Harris and Trump as they seek to secure their place in the nation’s highest office.
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