The Complex Ties Between China and North Korea: Historical Alliances and Modern Tensions
When Zhao Leji, the number three in the Chinese leadership, traveled to North Korea in April, the visit was designed to mark the beginning of a significant year in Sino-North Korean relations. Both countries celebrated the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic ties, a relationship that dates back to just six days after Mao Zedong declared the founding of the People's Republic of China in Tiananmen Square in 1949. Formal exchanges began shortly after, and China played a pivotal role in the Korean War by sending 400,000 soldiers to support Kim Il-sung against American forces. Since then, the relationship has often been characterized as close as lips and teeth, yet underlined with blood due to historical events.
On this anniversary, state and party leader Xi Jinping claimed in October that the friendship has withstood the test of time and remains a vital resource. However, the reality is that the relationship is far more intricate than the Chinese leadership is willing to publicly acknowledge. The evolving military cooperation between North Korea and Russia poses a strain that could reshape regional dynamics, especially as approximately 10,000 North Korean soldiers are reported to have been sent to Russia according to the U.S. Department of Defense.
While China stands firmly with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, North Korea’s direct involvement presents a potential shift in the balance of power in Northeast Asia—a development Beijing may view as threatening. The presence of North Korea's nuclear arsenal is a factor that makes Pyongyang a concern for China. Despite being North Korea's foremost ally, the relationship has consistently been marked by fluctuations, shaped by historical negotiations and conflicts.
Historically, Kim Il-sung skillfully wielded tensions between Beijing and Moscow to strengthen his own position. In turn, Beijing shocked Pyongyang in the 1970s with its rapprochement with the United States and later established diplomatic relations with South Korea in the 1990s. Today, the most significant point of contention remains North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, which analysts like Eric Ballbach of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs indicate is perceived by China as a destabilizing factor.
China has supported UN sanctions aimed at moderating North Korea’s trade, yet it remains a vital protector and lifeline for the Kim regime, fearing that an unstable North Korea could lead to an influx of refugees or the unification of Korea under the South’s banner, bringing American forces closer to China's borders.
Since 2019, North Korea has shifted its focus away from negotiating sanctions, instead prioritizing military modernization and fostering closer ties with China and Russia. Kim Jong-un has since declared South Korea as an unyielding enemy, abandoning aspirations for peaceful reunification. Notably, North Korea has escalated tensions with provocative tests of nuclear weapons and missiles during critical political events in China, signaling its defiance.
The timing of Zhao Leji’s visit in April coincided with these changes in Pyongyang’s agenda, marking a heightened emphasis on military capability over diplomatic engagement. The absence of substantial commentary from Beijing regarding North Korean troops potentially engaging in the Ukraine conflict reflects the complex geopolitical landscape. Eric Ballbach notes that the tactical implication of sending North Korean troops to Ukraine remains shrouded in uncertainty.
It is likely that North Korea will seek significant gains from their military support to Russia, raising questions about whether this crosses any critical threshold for China. Should Russia's economic support wane due to increased North Korean military involvement, Beijing's influence in the region could diminish.
While state media in China primarily direct their attention towards the U.S. as a perceived enemy, the narrative crafted suggests that both Russia and North Korea are uniting against Washington’s alleged interference. Beijing perceives the burgeoning cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan as a potential 'Asian NATO' aimed at curtailing its regional influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Ironically, North Korea's brash move to assist Russia may bolster American alliances within the region, inadvertently validating Chinese suspicions about U.S. motivations. In the context of this rivalry with Washington, it is improbable that Beijing will leverage its influence to restrain Russia or North Korea. Conversely, as the U.S. deepens its regional ties, North Korea may emerge as a more critical buffer for Beijing, heightening its role in geostrategic stability.
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