The Expiration of New START: A New Era of Nuclear Arms Uncertainty

The last nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, New START, expired recently, effectively releasing both countries from any constraints on their nuclear arsenals. This development raises serious concerns about a potential resurgence in nuclear proliferation and marks a significant pivot away from the decades-long arms control efforts that have been in place since the 1970s. Initially signed in 2010 and renewed in 2021, the New START treaty was monumental in limiting the number of deployed long-range strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550, focusing on systems meant to deter threats far from the battlefield. The treaty required transparency through periodic exchanges of information about deployment and regular inspections, which have unfortunately been stalled due to rising tensions, especially following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called on both nations to return to the negotiating table, yet the likelihood of achieving a new agreement in the near term looks bleak. Historically, the treaty was a continuation of earlier agreements aimed at reducing the number of nuclear weapons. Starting with negotiations between Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev in 1972, subsequent treaties, including the 1991 START I treaty, laid the groundwork for arms limitations. However, the end of the New START treaty signifies a critical juncture, as many previous agreements have already been abandoned or have lapsed over the last decade. In recent months, there were speculations from Russian officials regarding a potential extension of the treaty, a notion that former President Trump also hinted at in a very general sense. Nonetheless, Trump's administration showed little enthusiasm for arms control, instead aiming to involve China in future negotiations—despite China's reluctance and its ongoing nuclear buildup. Experts warn that the conclusion of the New START treaty could signal the dawn of a new phase characterized by heightened nuclear armament, particularly as both nations possess over 80% of the world’s nuclear weapons. Moreover, analysts suspect that China aims to increase its arsenal to reach parity with the U.S. and Russia. The recent cessation of the treaty comes on the heels of prior setbacks in nonproliferation efforts, including the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, which banned intermediate-range missiles, as the two powers have subsequently intensified their military postures. As the international community looks ahead to the upcoming review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a cornerstone of global disarmament and nonproliferation efforts, the absence of a bilateral arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia may prompt significant challenges. The framework requires nuclear-armed states to make good-faith efforts towards disarmament, placing further pressure on already strained relations in the absence of credible agreements. The expiration of the New START treaty calls into question the future of nuclear diplomacy and elevates the risk of an unchecked arms race. As the world watches, the unfolding situation demands an immediate return to dialogue on nuclear regulatory frameworks—before what was once a deterrent tool transforms into a catalyst for increased conflict. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2