The Future of the Papacy: Analyzing Pope Francis' Cardinal Appointments
When a pope resigns or passes away, his successor is chosen by a committee of cardinals, who are the most significant leaders of the Catholic Church. The title of cardinal is not automatically given based on seniority; rather, it is the pope who personally appoints them, usually selecting individuals he feels closest to or believes are worthy of elevation. This selection process also takes into account geographical representation and various currents within the Church.
Popes who maintain their positions for extended periods or those who have the chance to appoint numerous cardinals—often due to deaths among the ranks during their tenure—can significantly influence the choice of their successors. This is precisely the scenario that Pope Francis has cultivated during his 12 years in office. He has appointed 111 of the 141 cardinals eligible to elect his successor, representing about 80 percent of the voting body. Of the remaining cardinals, 24 were appointed by his predecessor, Benedict XVI, and 6 by John Paul II.
Consequently, there is a strong possibility that the next pope will similarly emerge from the progressive faction of the Church, akin to Pope Francis himself. However, the dynamics of the cardinal conclave—responsible for electing the new pope—are complex and unpredictable. Even cardinals appointed by Pope Francis might opt for a candidate from the conservative faction, influenced by factors such as geographical origin, age, or past ecclesiastical experience.
Historically, long-serving popes who appoint multiple cardinals tend to ensure that their successors align with their own factions. In contrast, shorter papacies lead to more diverse majorities and unpredictable outcomes. For example, during the 2005 conclave, which elected Benedict XVI, 113 of the 115 voting cardinals had been appointed by John Paul II, indicating significant ideological continuity.
John Paul II, from the radical wing of the conservative faction, successfully facilitated the election of Benedict XVI, a figure who was somewhat less ideologically rigid. His cardinal appointments paved the way for Pope Francis's election in 2013, where geographical diversity was a crucial factor; historically, South America had not seen a pope elected. Initially, few anticipated that Pope Francis would take a progressive stance on numerous issues.
Today, the conclave is marked by a higher representation of cardinals from the progressive faction in comparison to earlier assemblies. Pope Francis has diversified the conclave by intentionally overlooking leaders from prominent archdioceses, such as those in Los Angeles, Venice, and Milan, choosing instead individuals from more marginalized backgrounds who mirror his own pastoral and social justice priorities, as noted by the American Jesuit publication, America.
Among Pope Francis's appointments is Robert W. McElroy, the former bishop of San Diego, who recently became the archbishop of Washington, D.C. McElroy is recognized for his outspoken criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump and is seen as a pivotal figure in American Catholicism, advocating for migrant rights and various progressive causes.
Moreover, Pope Francis has deliberately expanded the geographical diversity of the cardinals, appointing individuals from emerging areas outside the West. Countries represented in the recent appointments include Brazil, Ivory Coast, Algeria, and Iran, marking a historic shift: for the first time, the majority of cardinals will come from non-European countries. This contrasts sharply with the situation in 1939 during the election of Pius XII, when only one in ten cardinals was not European.
Some newly appointed cardinals were caught off guard by their appointments. For instance, Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi, the archbishop of Tokyo, was unaware of his elevation while attending a Synod of Bishops in Rome, initially mistaking congratulatory remarks for a joke.
In addition to expanding geographical representation, Pope Francis has selected younger cardinals compared to the average age within the conclave. Currently, while the average age of cardinals is 72, those appointed by Pope Francis average just 62 years, with the youngest being Mykola Bychok, head of the Greek-Catholic Church in Melbourne, Australia, at the age of 44.
The strategic appointments made by Pope Francis not only shape the immediate future of the Church but may also have lasting implications for its direction and ideology in the years to come.
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