The Geopolitical chessboard: US-Russia peace proposal reveals undercurrents of strategy

In recent days, the Kremlin has adopted a surprisingly passive stance, remaining silent amid the storm of geopolitical activity sparked by a leaked 28-point US-Russia peace proposal. This proposal, now circulating in media channels, has created disarray in Washington, Kyiv, and European capitals, delivering the exact circumstances that Russian President Vladimir Putin has long desired: a negotiating table heavily tilted in his favor. Ukraine finds itself cornered, forced to consider terms that could prove unacceptable, all while the looming threat of losing its most critical ally weighs heavily on its leadership. Since former President Donald Trump's return to power, both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have engaged in relentless efforts to convey to the US that neither side is resisting peace. Trump, however, has displayed erratic behavior, alternating between vociferous criticism of one faction or another, which has left the diplomatic community uncertain about the future trajectory of US-Russian relations. Following the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, which many believe left Trump dissatisfied, he appeared to align more distinctly with Kyiv, accusing Russia of sabotaging peace initiatives. This was shortly followed by significant US sanctions targeting Russian oil, signaling a robust American stance. However, the recent emergence of the peace plan, orchestrated largely by US property developer Steve Witkoff in tandem with Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, has inherently shifted that narrative. While the origins of the plan and Trump's precise involvement in it remain somewhat foggy, he has since embraced it, suggesting through his Truth Social platform that Ukraine is the key impediment to peace. In a striking display of frustration, he lamented that Kyiv's leadership exhibited 'ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS.' Moscow, on the other hand, has remained unusually reticent. For days, officials from the foreign ministry feigned ignorance, only for Putin to later acknowledge that the proposals might indeed serve as a foundation for a final peace settlement. This has led to questions regarding the US negotiation process, which seems to favor Russian interests. The current US strategy hinges on securing Kyiv's consent before an American delegation heads to Moscow to finalize the terms. The Kremlin is likely aware that any move by Zelenskyy to endorse a proposal resembling the 28-point draft could incite political turbulence within Ukraine; a situation that Moscow would welcome. Moreover, Putin understands that Ukraine cannot entirely abandon negotiations without potentially dire consequences, especially considering its dependence on US military support and intelligence. Such a withdrawal could precipitate a catastrophic winter for Ukraine. Even if Kyiv were to express support for the peace plan, experts suggest that Putin will leverage that momentum to push for further concessions. "The plan may be 70% acceptable, but the rest is something Putin will not agree to," explained Anton Barbashin, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, indicated that the current draft is poorly articulated, leaving ample room for varied interpretations—an approach unlikely to lead to a signature from Putin. Furthermore, she argues that the vague language concerning Ukraine's neutrality and NATO's future expansion means that tangible documents, timelines, and commitments need to be addressed—none of which are presently included in the proposal. The prevailing sentiment among Putin's inner circle appears to be that should diplomatic talks stall, the continuation of warfare would pose no problem. Moscow seems to be banking on what they perceive will be an inevitable deterioration of Ukraine’s position, particularly if Trump moves forward with threats to curtail US military aid. While Putin has stopped short of endorsing the deal, analysts suggest he is biding his time, observing internal disputes within the US administration over the proposal. On Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the authorship of the peace plan originated from the United States, countering claims from a Republican senator who suggested it was a Russian initiative. The Kremlin is attentively monitoring which faction within the American administration prevails, highlighting that it remains premature for Moscow to celebrate any victories. Ukraine's strategy, as seen in previous rounds of diplomacy, is to collaboratively reshape the proposal with its European allies into something more amenable to its own interests, while attempting to secure Trump's endorsement of that revised version. In a recent development, the US and Ukrainian teams unveiled a 19-point peace plan that favors Kyiv significantly but postpones discussions on the most sensitive issues for later resolution. Moscow is expected to reject this counterproposal, potentially leaving both parties back at square one. As events unfold rapidly, it seems that Putin may take a step back for the moment. According to Fyodor Lukyanov, an analyst close to the Kremlin, Russia will likely maintain current military pressures until Ukraine concedes to the original 28-point plan, after which they would be prepared to delve into detailed discussions. "The ball is on the other side," Lukyanov aptly noted, underscoring the pivotal role of Ukrainian decision-making in this fraught diplomatic chess match. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2 • Source 3