The High Cost of Russian Aggression: Analyzing the Declining Momentum in Ukraine

A recent analysis by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) casts a stark light on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, challenging the narrative of Russian triumphalism and revealing severe costs that Moscow has incurred since it initiated its so-called special military operation in February 2022. According to the report, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, marking one of the highest costs of warfare incurred by any major power since World War II. This staggering human toll raises significant questions about the sustainability of Russia's military ambitions in the region. While claims of battlefield momentum persist, Jones and McCabe argue that Russia's territorial gains are minimal and its military trajectory is increasingly precarious. The analysts highlight that, despite Russian advancements averaging between 15 to 70 meters per day during their most notable offensives, this constitutes the slowest pace in major military campaigns over the last century. This contrasts sharply with the Kremlin's narrative, which insists on a narrative of inevitable victory. For instance, President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russian forces are making confident strides in the conflict, often emphasizing their ability to crush 'hostile forces'. However, statistical evidence points to another reality: the staggering casualty rates on both sides. The report predicts that combined casualties could reach 2 million by spring 2026, indicating that this conflict is turning into an unsustainable war of attrition, where high costs in human lives and material resources may soon become unbearable for Russia. The economic conditions underpinning Russia's military efforts add another layer of complexity to the situation. The Russian economy is under mounting pressure, with forecasts indicating a growth slowdown of 0.6% in 2025 alongside a manufacturing decline. The lack of globally competitive technology companies threatens long-term productivity and reinforces the idea that Russia is sliding into a second or third-tier economic power status. With a population burdened by the pain of losing loved ones and Rwandan high casualty rates, public sentiment may soon start to shift against the war, raising critical domestic concerns for the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin's objectives in the conflict remain unchanged, centered on reincorporating Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence, be it through direct annexation or by establishing a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv. Nonetheless, after significant military setbacks in 2014, Moscow was compelled to resort to a full-scale invasion in February 2022 to achieve its aims. However, the failure of a quick decisive victory forced a widespread strategy of attrition, characterized by high losses and protracted engagements rather than swift conquests. Russian military tactics have evolved since the beginning of the conflict, including the use of drones and unconventional warfare techniques but often at an expensive human and material cost. Ukraine, on the other hand, has effectively utilized a strategy of defense, which has been advantageous in a war favoring the defender. Its military’s innovative use of trenches, anti-tank obstacles, and drones has made it increasingly difficult for Russian forces to make substantive territorial gains. For instance, despite summary assertions of Russian victory, the actual territorial extension secured since 2022 remains modest at around 120,000 square kilometers or roughly 20% of Ukraine's total area. As the war continues, there exist exploitable vulnerabilities within Russia's strategy. The economic sanctions imposed by the international community, particularly against energy exports, hold the potential to inflict substantial economic pressure on Russia's military ambitions as they continue to drain resources. This vulnerability, coupled with the high cost of lives at the front lines, may present opportunities for the United States and its allies to strengthen support for Ukraine through advanced weapons and additional military training. In conclusion, while the Kremlin persists in projecting an image of strength and territorial gains, a close examination of battlefield dynamics and economic realities suggests that Russia's position is far more precarious than presented. The current trajectory may not only hasten Ukraine's efforts to defend its sovereignty but also significantly undermine Russia's capacity for further military interventions. As the regime grapples with internal dissent and economic vulnerabilities, the question remains: can Moscow sustain this costly campaign without provoking an irrevocable change in public sentiment at home? Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2 • Source 3