The Incremental Approach: Why Ukraine Deserves More From the West
For a nation battered by conflict for over a thousand days, recent developments in Ukraine have been especially challenging. Russia has bolstered its military ranks by acquiring 11,000 troops from North Korea and mercenaries from Yemen, while ramping up assaults on Ukraine’s energy grid just as temperatures plummet. As Moscow continues to make territorial gains in the eastern regions, the situation for Ukraine looks increasingly dire. Adding to the complexity, the recent election in the United States has ushered in a presidency that promises to bring an abrupt end to the war, albeit likely not in Ukraine’s favor.
Amidst these overwhelming challenges, a persistent question has emerged: is the West escalating the conflict? This concern has arisen due to the easing of certain limitations on Ukraine’s military operations, specifically regarding the use of Western missiles against Russian targets. However, describing Western policy towards Ukraine as escalatory would be a mischaracterization. It is more accurately described as an act of incrementalism, providing just enough support to keep Ukraine afloat without enabling a full-scale counter-offensive against Russia.
The reluctance to fully empower Ukraine stems from two primary reasons. Firstly, delivering comprehensive military assistance and sustaining Ukraine’s economy would necessitate substantial defense spending that could strain Western economies. Politicians, wary of alienating voters amid rising taxes and commodity prices, often hesitate to make such demands clear. Secondly, the fear of escalation looms large, particularly in the wake of Russia’s nuclear threats. The Biden administration, among others, has exhibited a reluctance to respond aggressively, despite Russia’s own escalatory actions, displaying a clear case of nuclear blackmail at play.
This pattern of hesitancy has historical precedents dating back to prior conflicts. The lack of decisive military assistance to Ukraine before the annexation of Crimea and the onset of conflict in the Donbas region illustrates a consistent failure to confront aggression adequately. If more substantial support had been provided earlier, the current situation might have been considerably different, resulting in fewer losses and perhaps altering Russia’s decision to invade.
Many leaders, including Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz, and Joe Biden, have refrained from advocating for a decisive Ukrainian victory, settling instead for the vague pledge of unwavering support for as long as necessary. This reluctance poses a crucial question: if Ukraine is not given the means to achieve a clear winning objective, then how can victory ever be a possibility?
To transform this war from a managed crisis to a fight for sovereignty and security, Western nations must reconsider their approach. Instead of a drip-feed of support, they need to adopt a strategy of incremental gains akin to professional cycling, where numerous small, coordinated efforts can lead to significant outcomes. Effective actions could include leveraging Russia's frozen $300 billion in reserves, tightening sanctions on Russian oil transportation, ramping up military supplies, investing in European defense industries, increasing air defense systems for Ukraine, eliminating restrictions on targeting Russian military assets, and preparing a roadmap for Ukraine’s NATO membership.
However, the discrepancy in response underscores an uncomfortable truth: had this conflict been occurring in a nation like Portugal or France, the international community would likely mobilize substantial resources to intervene. The perception that Ukraine is somehow less deserving of support due to its geographic and cultural positioning illustrates a profound moral failing.
As the struggle between Ukraine and Russia continues, the wider implications of this conflict and what it means for Europe must be recognized. Neighboring countries like Moldova, Poland, and the Baltic states are also influenced by this power dynamic. The West must come to terms with the urgency of the situation and the necessity of a robust response that prioritizes not just managing the conflict but aiming for a decisive victory for Ukraine. At what point will the West recognize that defending Ukraine is integral to European security as a whole? The time for action is not just now; it is overdue.
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