The Potential Impact of Ali Larijani's Alleged Death on Iranian Politics

Israel has claimed responsibility for the killing of Ali Larijani, a significant figure within the Iranian regime, asserting that he had effectively become the true leader of Iran following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an Israeli bombing earlier in the conflict. As of now, Iran has neither confirmed nor denied Larijani's death, and official statements from the United States are absent as well. Since the initiation of the war, Israeli and U.S. airstrikes have severely impacted the Iranian leadership. It is speculated that Larijani had evaded previous targeting due to the U.S. perception of him as a negotiable representative of the regime. However, throughout the war, he had adopted a staunch hardline stance, expressing his unwillingness to negotiate Iran's surrender and resorting to aggressive rhetoric against both Israel and the United States. His threats against former President Donald Trump, cautioning him to 'be careful,' further solidified his reputation as a confrontational figure. Should Larijani's death be confirmed, it would not necessarily destabilize the regime, which has a robust structure capable of withstanding crises. Nevertheless, the loss of Larijani would carry substantial weight. He was an experienced politician, recognized for his conservative disposition aligned with Khamenei, yet pragmatic enough to navigate the multiple factions within the regime. His capability to make decisive choices, along with directing Iran’s communication and diplomacy—especially critical during wartime—makes his potential absence significant. At the age of 67, Larijani last appeared publicly during a demonstration in Tehran, alongside other prominent Iranian politicians. This public presence is part of the regime's efforts to project strength and resilience, as leaders often deem it safe to gather, assuming that any airstrikes would likely cause collateral damage to many. Larijani's formal position included serving as head of the Supreme National Security Council, where he has gradually gained more influence than President Masoud Pezeshkian. He had been responsible for overseeing the Iranian repression apparatus, particularly during the brutal crackdown last January against widespread protests in Iran. However, Larijani's status as a non-cleric precluded him from becoming Supreme Leader, a position which Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali's son, inherited. Recent accounts from the New York Times articulate that Larijani had been opposed to Mojtaba's ascension as Supreme Leader, advocating instead for a leadership that was more moderate. Coming from an illustrious family in Iran, Larijani's political career stretches back to the 1980s, during which he served as a commander in the Revolutionary Guards throughout the punishing Iran-Iraq war. Transitioning into politics, Larijani held various significant roles, including Minister of Culture and head of the Iranian state television (IRIB), where he controlled media narratives to reinforce regime propaganda and maintain a conservative perspective. He served as President of Parliament for three terms from 2008 to 2020 and previously as head of the National Security Council. He participated in the 2005 presidential electiions, running among conservatives but later saw attempts to run again in 2021 and 2024 thwarted. This was surprising, given his closeness to power, which he attributed to familial ties in the United States. Larijani played a pivotal role in the negotiations for the 2015 nuclear agreement, positioning himself as a conservative yet pragmatic voice. In 2021, he reached a significant economic agreement with China, vital for Iran's economy, which has struggled under U.S. sanctions. Recently, he had been traveling abroad extensively as Khamenei’s envoy, with his latest high-profile engagement being a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasizing Iran’s strategic alliances. As speculation surrounds the circumstances of Ali Larijani’s alleged death, it invites scrutiny into the internal dynamics of the Iranian regime and highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region. His potential absence from the Iranian political landscape raises critical questions about the future of Iranian governance, diplomatic negotiations, and the interplay of power within its complex political hierarchy. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2