Transition of Power in Mexico: López Obrador's Legacy and Sheinbaum's Challenge
On September 30, the nonrenewable term of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador came to an end. Upon taking office in 2018, he claimed he would transform Mexico. While there have been some improvements in living conditions for a segment of the population through economic assistance programs, many of his promises remain unfulfilled. Public services have not improved nor become more accessible, and contrary to his commitments, the military presence on the streets has increased alongside rising homicide rates.
López Obrador, a left-wing populist president with conservative economic positions, focused on passing controversial reforms in the final phase of his presidency. These reforms risk undermining judicial independence and expanding the military's role in public order. Claudia Sheinbaum, elected in June and part of López Obrador’s party Morena, is set to continue many of his policies as she assumes the presidency on October 1.
After the June elections, López Obrador’s coalition secured a majority in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, enabling them to enact constitutional amendments. López Obrador successfully passed a reform making the positions of federal judges and Supreme Court justices elective, which effectively grants greater control to the government. Sheinbaum is well-positioned to pursue similar initiatives.
The ambitious reform agenda, referred to as 'Plan C', includes 20 reforms, 18 of which are constitutional. Notably controversial is the plan to transfer the National Guard to military control, which raises concerns about the militarization of public safety and civil liberties. Critics, including former Supreme Court Justice José Ramón Cossío, highlight that this represents a significant shift towards military involvement in civilian affairs.
Other proposed reforms aim to reduce public funding for political parties and diminish the authority of the National Electoral Institute (INE), which is responsible for overseeing elections. López Obrador's strategy has sparked protests and legal challenges, particularly about earlier proposals to drastically reduce the number of parliamentarians.
While some of López Obrador's policies have garnered support, such as a doubling of the minimum wage, issues persist. Critics argue that public services remain stagnant; for example, access to healthcare has deteriorated, impacting the poorest segments of the population who were supposed to benefit from government interventions.
The fight against corruption and drug trafficking, another critical promise, has largely stalled. With over 178,000 homicides recorded since 2018, drug traffickers have expanded their control over regions of Mexico, undermining López Obrador’s initial strategy of prioritizing social development over violent confrontations.
Despite stepping down, López Obrador's influence is expected to linger. Analysts suggest that Sheinbaum will not only continue his policies due to ideological alignment but also because of the reforms already set in motion. The continuity of 'Obradorism' poses questions about how Sheinbaum will navigate her presidency and potentially distance her administration from López Obrador's legacy.
Claudia Sheinbaum faces the daunting challenge of maintaining public support, which has historically been high for López Obrador. With her ascendance, there are concerns about the consolidation of power within the Morena party and the potential for further erosion of democratic institutions. How she addresses these challenges will be pivotal as Mexico moves into a new political era.
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