Trump and Putin's Planned Meeting: A Potential Path to Peace or a Dangerous Gamble for Ukraine?

The war in Ukraine, ignited by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, has exacted a heavy toll on both Moscow and Kyiv, claiming tens of thousands of civilian lives. In Eastern Ukraine, Russia maintains a relentless and brutal advance, with deadly aerial strikes becoming a nightly occurrence across the country. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces have been targeting Russian refineries and energy facilities with regular drone attacks, demonstrating that the conflict shows no signs of abating. Amid this turmoil, the Kremlin has announced plans for a meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump stated his aim is to "get the war over with," following talks he facilitated between Russia and Ukraine that took place from May to July, which ultimately did not result in any meaningful progress towards peace. Despite Trump’s hopes, the fissure between Kyiv and Moscow appears too wide to bridge effectively, even with his involvement. In June, Russia presented Ukraine with a memorandum detailing its assertive demands for a resolution, which includes recognizing Russian sovereignty over the Ukrainian territories of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. They also require Ukraine to commit to demilitarization, neutrality, non-foreign military involvement, and new elections. Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political analyst, noted that while Russia may appear to present conditions for negotiation, its foundational stance remains unchanged: Moscow is insisting on Kyiv’s submission. Speculation arises around why Putin is willing to engage in talks at this juncture. One theory suggests that dialogue might help in mitigating the secondary sanctions that Trump has threatened against Russia’s trading partners. It is also conceivable that Putin hopes to persuade Trump regarding the merits of Moscow’s conditions for ending the war. During his second term, Trump had previously expressed a more favorable view toward Russia, labeling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a dictator and suggesting that he was responsible for the conflict. Although Trump has recently shown impatience with Putin, stating he felt like he was being strung along, there remains a reluctance to fully condemn Putin’s actions. In 2018, during a meeting in Helsinki, Trump’s apparent alignment with Putin over accusations of Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election shocked observers and strained U.S.-Russia relations further. In light of this history, Kyiv is pressing to be involved in any ceasefire discussions, fearing that Trump may inadvertently grant concessions to Putin’s demands. Trump's envoy has suggested a potential trilateral meeting involving both Putin and Zelensky; however, the Kremlin has rebuffed this idea, asserting that such a meeting is only viable once concrete agreements have been established between delegations. Many in Ukraine express concern that a Trump-Putin meeting could lead to Ukraine facing overwhelming demands for territorial concessions. Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko expressed that it is increasingly clear that territorial requests will be on the table, and their absence from negotiations would pose a significant risk for Ukraine. President Zelensky has conveyed Ukraine’s readiness to engage in talks, expecting a similarly bold stance from Russia. However, the stark divide remains, and should the Kremlin eventually consent to a trilateral meeting, the intractability of its ceasefire demands raises questions about the actual benefits of bringing Zelensky and Putin together face-to-face. The impending meeting between Trump and Putin presents both potential avenues for peace and significant risks for Ukraine. As the situation evolves, the implications of this diplomatic endeavor will unfold, potentially shaping the future of the war and the region. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2