Uganda Anticipates Presidential Elections Amidst Authoritarian Repression

On Thursday, Uganda is set to hold its presidential and parliamentary elections under a climate of uncertainty and fear. The outcome seems predetermined as the incumbent president, Yoweri Museveni, who is now 81 years old, is poised to secure a seventh term in office. Museveni has been at the helm since 1986, having ascended to power via a coup d'état, and over the years he has maintained an authoritarian grip on the political landscape, ruthlessly suppressing opposition voices, often resorting to violence to silence dissent. His main opponent, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, is a former musician turned politician who is particularly favored among the youth. Wearing a helmet and bulletproof vest during the campaign, Bobi Wine has expressed fears for his life, having encountered significant violence and arrests while attempting to engage in political activities. In the 2021 election, he faced defeat against Museveni but remains a symbol of hope for many youthful voters seeking change in a country wrought with oppression. Despite his efforts to gain traction, Bobi Wine's political journey has been marred by government repression. Police often disrupt his rallies, and supporters have faced attacks, with law enforcement employing tear gas and intimidation tactics as documented in various instances. Museveni's era has seen him reshape Uganda's political framework—he removed constitutional limits on presidential terms and age, allowing him to extend his rule beyond the previously established boundaries of two terms and a maximum age of 75. Since the first presidential elections in 1996, Museveni has been declared the winner in all subsequent elections, though these outcomes have consistently been dogged by allegations of irregularities and criticism from the opposition regarding the lack of fairness in the electoral process. The loss of judicial independence and press freedom under his regime, coupled with the consolidation of power within his family—his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba is a high-ranking military official and a potential successor—has raised alarms about the future of democracy in Uganda. International organizations, including the United Nations and Amnesty International, have condemned the upcoming elections as neither free nor fair due to the oppression of opposition parties. In an alarming turn, over 400 individuals have reportedly been arrested for supporting Bobi Wine, and there have been credible allegations of torture and abuse. The situation worsened when the government, in a preemptive move against misinformation, blocked internet access nationwide—a decision that could severely hinder opposition communication and oversight of electoral irregularities. Besides Museveni and Bobi Wine, six other candidates are contesting the presidency, but they lack a substantial chance of influencing the outcomes. Another notable opposition figure, Kizza Besigye, was unable to participate this year, having been imprisoned on treason charges after being arrested in early 2024. It is anticipated that Museveni's party, the National Resistance Movement, will also dominate the parliamentary elections, where they currently hold the majority. The results of the presidential election are expected to be disclosed within 48 hours post-poll closure, which suggests that announcements could come late Saturday afternoon, Italian time. Should no candidate achieve more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff between the two leading candidates would follow. The aftermath of the previous elections in 2021 saw widespread riots and violent confrontations, during which dozens of lives were lost following Bobi Wine’s refusal to acknowledge Museveni’s victory. As Uganda approaches another significant electoral moment, the specter of past violence looms heavily, questioning the very essence of democracy in a country with an intertwined legacy of hope and despair. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2