Ukraine's Ongoing Struggle: The Stakes of Staying the Course

For 40 harrowing months, Ukraine has valiantly defended itself against a brutal Russian invasion that began in February 2022. The country has endured relentless attacks leading to tens of thousands of casualties and millions displaced from their homes. Critical infrastructures such as industries, schools, hospitals, and power stations have been devastated, and fertile lands have been left in ruins. Ukrainian children are orphaned, traumatized, or even abducted, while the world has repeatedly failed to intervene effectively. Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, Ukraine continues to fight back with immense bravery. However, as Russian President Vladimir Putin escalates the conflict, launching waves of armed drones against Ukrainian cities, the complacency surrounding Ukraine's heroic resistance is increasingly precarious. Amid waning U.S. support and diplomatic efforts, Ukrainian frontline soldiers are stretched thin and facing exhaustion. The looming question of what happens if Ukraine falls is becoming urgent. The potential collapse of Ukraine would symbolize a strategic failure for the West, comparable to the calamitous conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. Such a scenario would have serious repercussions for Europe and the transatlantic alliance, making it essential for global leaders to focus on preventing this outcome. Since late 2023, it has been clear that Ukraine is not winning. Russian forces have steadily advanced, particularly in Donetsk, irrespective of the heavy losses they've suffered, which are now estimated to exceed 1 million. Although Ukraine has seen some impressive tactical successes, such as occupying the Kursk region and successfully targeting bombers deep inside Russia, these victories do not alter the basic imbalance of power. Ukraine's resilience is increasingly tested as it struggles to maintain effective military capabilities and reliable international alliances. Putin has garnered support from countries like China, Iran, and North Korea, while Ukraine's partnerships are faltering, exemplified by the limbo surrounding military assurance commitments from European nations like the UK and France. Recent pledges of support from leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer ring hollow against the backdrop of ineffective military assistance. Nations like Germany may try to resource Ukraine, but their priorities lean more towards national defense rather than the urgent needs of Kyiv. The United States, too, remains a mixed bag of support, particularly with former President Donald Trump’s erratic foreign policy approach. His recent shifting stance toward Ukraine adds further uncertainty. Despite these obstacles, there is still hope. NATO could adopt a more assertive strategy by enforcing air exclusion zones over unoccupied parts of Ukraine and directly targeting incoming hostile missiles. Failing that, international sanctions against Russian oil exports and the seizure of Kremlin-linked finances could be pursued aggressively to aid the Ukrainian war effort. With two likely outcomes on the horizon—a permanent stalemate or Ukraine's collapse—the necessity for concerted action is dire. A defeat for Ukraine would not only signify a loss for the nation but would also represent a strategic defeat for the West, fostering a climate of continued conflict throughout Europe. To avert such dire consequences, there needs to be a concerted effort to sway Russian political figures and the broader public to reconsider the war, highlighting the high costs in lives and resources. Ultimately, to bring about a resolution, the architect of this devastation—Putin himself—must face accountability. The powers of the world need to stand firm, as only by removing such a threat can a meaningful peace be reached. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2