Ukrainian Forces Maintain Momentum in Cross-Border Offensive, Increasing Pressure on Russia
Ten days have passed since the first Ukrainian soldiers crossed the border into Russia, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. Notably, the Russian Ministry of Defense has claimed daily that the situation remains controlled; however, reports indicate that Ukrainian forces continue to make daily advancements. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyj has informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that their troops have made progress of one to three kilometers in various directions, capturing an additional 40 square kilometers in the process.
As the situation develops, it appears Ukraine still has the initiative, although Russian troops have managed to slow their advance considerably. Recent images of Ukrainian soldiers killed or captured in the Kursk region have emerged, indicating increasing losses among Ukrainian armored vehicles. According to its own reports, Kyiv claims to have control over more than 1,000 square kilometers, though this assertion has not been independently verified. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has calculated that Ukrainian forces have made gains across an estimated area of around 800 square kilometers.
Both sides seem to be fortifying their defensive positions, with Ukrainian forces taking steps to secure their supply lines within Russian territory. The use of combat aircraft by Ukraine has become strategic, particularly in the northeast of occupied Russian regions, where heavy fighting is reported around the settlement of Korenewo. Intense battles are also occurring near Sudzha and in southeastern areas, with Ukraine claiming full control over Sudzha, a declaration that Russia is contesting.
In the west of the Kursk region, heightened Ukrainian attacks near the village of Girji have been observed. Ukrainian special forces have been infiltrating small settlements to gather intelligence and withdraw quickly when Russian reinforcements approach. This tactic complicates efforts to ascertain the exact extent of Russian territory under Ukrainian control. Notably, Ukrainian combat jets have been seen attacking targets in Kursk using glide bombs, indicating that despite not having air superiority, Ukrainian forces believe they have successfully suppressed Russian air defenses in the area.
Meanwhile, Russian armed forces appear to continue struggling with issues related to command structure, communication, and coordination among hastily assembled units. Smaller Ukrainian units have also made probing incursions further south into Russian territory, particularly in the Belgorod region, yet these seem largely intended as test attacks.
In response, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations declared a federal state of emergency for both the Kursk and Belgorod regions. Official Russian reports suggest that at least 200,000 residents have been displaced from their homes along the border due to the ongoing conflict. Military objectives for Ukraine appear multidimensional, with a pivotal goal being to pressure Russian units to withdraw from Ukraine, thereby weakening their presence in the region.
Reports indicate some Russian reserves intended for Ukraine may be diverted to Kursk, with ISW evaluating claims that parts of irregular Russian units from the Donetsk region have been relocated there as well. Although such claims remain unverified, they reflect a potential shift in focus in the ongoing conflict.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the recent advances aim to heighten pressure on Moscow to negotiate peace, suggesting that the territories captured could provide leverage for Kyiv in talks. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry underscored that unlike Russia, they do not plan on permanently occupying foreign territory. Furthermore, Zelenskyy indicated that newly captured Russian prisoners of war would be crucial for upcoming exchanges, with reports of the largest single capture of enemy soldiers in this war—102—being recently publicized.
Altogether, estimates suggest that over 1,000 Russian soldiers, including many conscripts, have fallen into Ukrainian hands. Initial discussions surrounding prisoner exchanges are noted to be already underway. Zelenskyy’s tone in his daily addresses has shifted to one of increased confidence, contrasting sharply with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is reportedly displeased as well-informed sources within his circle have confirmed.
This moment marks the first time since World War II that foreign military forces have occupied Russian territory. In response, the Russian government has tasked Defense and Security agencies with restoring order, while also appointing Alexey Dyumin—one of Putin’s close confidants—to oversee military and civilian responses, as the president seeks to regain control over a situation that his administration claims was never out of control at all.
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