UN Sanctions Against Iran Loom as Diplomatic Efforts Falter

The UK, France, and Germany have made a significant announcement, notifying the United Nations that they have initiated the process to restore comprehensive UN sanctions against Iran. This move gives Tehran a 30-day deadline to concede regarding access to its nuclear facilities or face even deeper global economic isolation. UK officials revealed that this decision was not made lightly, emphasizing that extensive diplomatic efforts had been undertaken to avert such a drastic step. Nonetheless, they also noted that there remains an opportunity for last-minute diplomatic negotiations before the sanctions' automatic reinstatement takes effect in 30 days. The upcoming high-level UN General Assembly in September is expected to serve as a platform for further diplomatic engagement concerning Iran's nuclear situation. Since 2019, Iran has been significantly noncompliant with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, with UK officials stating that Tehran had sufficient opportunities to comply but had either been unwilling or unable to do so politically. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ceased operations in Iran after Israeli strikes targeted crucial nuclear sites, and has since struggled to return and assess the condition of those sites. Although Iran allowed IAEA inspectors to visit the Bushehr site for refueling, broader access remains limited. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy communicated the decision to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in a call on Thursday morning. Following this, Araghchi responded that Iran would react appropriately to what it deems an illegal and unjustified action by the three European countries to safeguard its national rights and interests. The repercussions of this snapback will mean that many existing US and European sanctions will be converted into UN-wide sanctions, necessitating compliance from Russia and China as well. Additionally, sanctions related to Iran's arms industry—which are not currently enforced—will be reinstated. Furthermore, the United States, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, will regain a veto over any decisions regarding the lifting of these UN sanctions. The three European powers felt compelled to act promptly as the nuclear deal is set to expire on October 15, at which point their authority to reinstate sanctions would diminish. To justify this decision, UK officials referenced specific terms of the 2015 nuclear deal that permitted Iran to store a maximum of 300 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 3.67%. However, Iran's stockpile reportedly exceeds this limit by 45 times, with significant portions enriched beyond the agreed purity levels, alongside a substantial stockpile of unaccounted highly enriched uranium. Despite numerous negotiations throughout the year, officials noted an apparent lack of sufficient response from Iran. They stated, "We have bent over backwards to reach an agreement, but there simply has not been enough of a response on the Iranian side, including eight rounds of talks this year." They asserted that Iran had not met the most basic legal requirement for UN nuclear inspectors to have access to its sites, conveying a sense of urgency, stating, "We cannot afford to let the Iran nuclear file slip from our agenda or allow sanctions to be permanently lifted while Iran's nuclear program accelerates and IAEA access remains denied in clear breach of its obligations under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty." Officials argued that the snapback mechanism was both legal and proportionate, reiterating the UK's commitment to pursuing a diplomatic resolution. They also mentioned that in June, the UK had proposed a six-month delay in enforcing the snapback if Iran permitted the IAEA back into the country. Iran has ceased implementing the additional protocol that allowed for enhanced inspections of its nuclear sites. Some analysts suggest that Iran might consider withdrawing from the nonproliferation treaty altogether or intensifying its resistance to the IAEA's return. Although the Iran nuclear issue currently does not dominate the White House's agenda, there are concerns that it may soon draw renewed interest from figures like Donald Trump and Israel, raising fears of potential military confrontations. The Iranian leadership appears somewhat caught off guard by recent attacks prompting a reorganization of its defense and security leadership. It is suggested that the leadership may not have reached a consensus on whether to accept US demands for the lifting of sanctions or to endure further confrontations. The Iranian parliament, dominated by conservatives, has established stringent conditions for the IAEA's return, although the national security council could override these conditions. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2