Uncertain Diplomatic Paths: Navigating Ukraine's Fate Amidst Trump's Influence
The latest diplomatic attempts to halt Russia's invasion of Ukraine took place in an unexpected setting – the funeral of Pope Francis. The sight of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and former U.S. President Donald Trump conversing beneath Carlo Maratta's late-17th-century painting, 'The Baptism of Christ', sparked fleeting hopes that the U.S. might finally engage with Ukraine's concerns. Was this surprising backdrop a catalyst for Trump's oft-stated compassion for human life, or merely an episode that would yield no significant progress in halting this brutal conflict?
Kyiv, supported by a 31-nation coalition, aims to dissociate Trump from a worrisome alignment between Washington and Moscow. However, this endeavor faces steep challenges, particularly as Europe and Ukraine grapple with Trump's political maneuvering at a time when U.S. sentiment appears to drift toward Russia's position. A recent blow came from Trump’s willingness to recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea and oppose Ukraine's NATO membership. Moreover, the U.S. laid out a seven-point plan for ending the conflict during talks in Paris, accompanied by Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s warning that if rapid progress wasn’t achieved, discussions would likely shift to other global issues. Despite this plan, there’s a lack of U.S. commitment to verify a deal or offer deterrence against potential Russian advances.
While hope can energize spirits, it is not a dependable strategy. Trump's emerging second term threatens the political order in a manner that poses risks for Ukraine and all of Europe. Three factors complicate diplomatic efforts to safeguard Europe and attain favorable outcomes in Ukraine.
Firstly, the unsettling parallels in worldviews between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are alarming. Both leaders perceive global relations as a power struggle, wherein the strong dictate terms to the weak, often resorting to military strength to assert their objectives. Trump has echoed Putin's fabricated narrative that the West incited the war, thus complicating Ukraine's position on the international stage by aligning with Russia in United Nations votes on issues surrounding the conflict.
Secondly, Trump's unpredictable decision-making processes hinder European allies hoping to coordinate a unified response. There’s a palpable concern that Trump will act based on whose opinion he hears last rather than in pursuit of enduring peace and stability. One former associate recalled the anxiety of strategies being overshadowed by the most recent input, even from a doorman.
It was promising that leaders like Zelenskyy, UK’s Keir Starmer, and France’s Emmanuel Macron could speak to Trump at the Vatican, likely advising him to remain skeptical about Putin's declared interest in peace amid continued military aggression. Just recently, Ukraine's top general indicated the start of a new Russian offensive near Kharkiv and Sumy, with Ukraine insisting on an unconditional ceasefire as a prerequisite for any meaningful dialogue.
Vatican diplomacy appeared to stimulate some public skepticism from Trump regarding Putin's intentions, and he even proposed secondary sanctions against Russia should negotiations falter. However, concerns linger that Trump's recent envoy, Steve Witkoff, returning from Moscow after multiple visits, might convince Trump to revert to appeasement policies, particularly when Russia is actively seeking to court U.S. interests with potential business ventures, including a towering Trump Tower planned in the heart of Moscow.
Lastly, Trump’s penchant for wielding power for its own sake undermines effective policymaking. By sidelining Europe and Ukraine while engaging in direct talks with Russia, Trump underscores his dominance in the geopolitical arena. He operates under the belief that Europe is defenseless against Russia without U.S. support. Furthermore, he perceives that Ukraine's survival hinges on American intelligence and military aid.
In Trump’s mind, being at the negotiating table with Putin, even for a ceasefire, serves as a demonstration of authority and influence, regardless of the lasting impact of such agreements.
With such an unpredictable leader in the U.S. presidency, Europe is left to question the reliability of American support for its defense and Ukraine's integrity. The hope that Europe can win over Trump's favor against Russia is fraught with peril. As discussions progress, Europe must ready itself for a protracted standoff with Russia, recognizing that while talks may buy time, they cannot replace the pressing need for substantial defensive investments to counter Russian aggression.
Related Sources: