Upcoming Jet Fuel Shortages Threaten Summer Travel Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions

European airports are sounding alarm bells over potential jet fuel shortages as the summer holiday season approaches, warning that oil supplies must begin flowing through the Strait of Hormuz within the next three weeks to avoid significant disruptions. The Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has reached out to Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the EU transport commissioner, indicating that without a resumption of oil supplies, the region could face systemic fuel shortages. Oil prices have skyrocketed since early March, following Iran's effective closure of the critical shipping lane in retaliation to military actions involving the US and Israel. Despite a recent ceasefire announced by Donald Trump, Brent crude oil prices have remained elevated at around $96 per barrel—a substantial increase from the pre-crisis price of about $72. In a letter to the EU, ACI Europe warned that if oil passage through the Strait does not stabilize within three weeks, the risk of flight cancellations could significantly increase, impacting holiday travel plans for millions. After the onset of heightened tensions in the region, global jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared to last year, reaching approximately $1,650 per tonne according to figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The Asia region bears the brunt of these price hikes, with jet fuel costs up 163% year-on-year, while Europe has seen a 138% surge as countries compete for dwindling resources. Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, highlighted the UK's vulnerability in this fuel crisis, due to its heavy reliance on imports from Kuwait. In the latest shipping updates, the last cargo of European jet fuel slated to arrive via the Strait is expected to reach Copenhagen soon, with the final UK delivery having arrived from Saudi Arabia earlier this week. Historically, Europe has sourced more than 60% of its jet fuel from Gulf refineries, with over 40% transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran's control over this vital trade route has led to complications for European buyers, many of whom are now vying with Asia for limited fuel supplies from elsewhere. Investment insights from Macquarie highlight that the global jet fuel market is particularly strained because refined oil products lack alternative trade routes, unlike crude oil that can bypass the Strait through pipelines. Even if oil trade flows resume, it is anticipated to take two to three months for fuel markets to stabilize compared to crude markets. Airlines worldwide are already responding to soaring fuel prices by cutting flights and increasing fares, triggering concerns over higher inflation rates. However, the bigger threat lies in outright shortages, which could compel individuals and businesses to halt travel plans or disrupt export activities. ACI has expressed growing concerns regarding fuel availability and the urgent need for proactive monitoring and intervention from EU authorities, emphasizing that military activities are exacerbating demand pressures. Tensions are likely to peak around the start of the summer travel season, where the interconnectedness of air travel and global tourism economies could amplify the impact of fuel shortages. IATA's Director General, Willie Walsh, noted that even with normal operations sustained through the Strait of Hormuz, it could take several months to restore supply levels to pre-crisis standards due to ongoing disruptions to refining capacity in the Middle East. Before the escalating conflict, IATA had forecasted a 49% year-on-year growth in passenger traffic for 2026, a projection now placed in jeopardy by the current volatility in the oil markets. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2 • Source 3