US-Russia Negotiations on Black Sea Ceasefire: Progress or Delay Tactics?
On Monday, Americans and Russians engaged in intense negotiations for twelve hours at the heavily secured Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh, aiming to address a critical ceasefire in the Black Sea. Following the discussions, a statement was anticipated for Tuesday morning, shedding light on a potential new agreement that has become central to the ongoing conflict in the region. However, the announcement was unexpectedly cancelled, signaling that complexities within the talks may present significant hurdles.
Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian presidential office, clarified that the discussions were highly technical, leaving no room for public statements to be shared at this juncture. Both delegations are currently analyzing the outcomes of the conversations, and reports have been sent back to their respective governments for further review. Peskov noted that true agreements cannot be discussed until a thorough examination of the details is conducted.
Currently, it seems there are notable differences between the negotiating delegations of the United States and Russia. This sentiment was echoed by Peskov, who indicated that there are no scheduled conversations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump unless a significant breakthrough warrants such a discussion. Additionally, Peskov stated that tripartite talks involving Russia, the US, and Ukraine are not in the works at the moment, highlighting the lack of immediate progress.
Russian negotiator Grigorij Karasin confirmed that while the discussions were complex, they were also somewhat productive, suggesting that various issues were deliberated. On the US side, delegates briefly reconnected with their Ukrainian counterparts, though no details of that conversation have been disclosed.
The US remains hopeful that a ceasefire in the Black Sea could pave the way for broader negotiations and potentially lead to lasting peace. In contrast, Moscow appears to be playing for time, leveraging the pause in discussions to further their interests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted the possibility of a new agreement concerning the Black Sea but included conditions that reflect a strategy of delay.
Lavrov’s comments suggested that Russia desires the right to inspect Ukrainian ships to ensure they are not being utilized for arms deliveries. This concern echoes past issues where the export of Russian grain and fertilizers faced significant obstacles.
The Black Sea has been a crucial battleground since the onset of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, with the port of Odessa being a focal point. Despite the hostility, Ukraine managed to increase its exports last year through a corridor along the coast, even surpassing figures from before the grain agreement with Russia, which expired in July 2023. Since then, Ukraine has conducted its exports without the risk of arbitrary Russian inspections.
Military expert Gustav Gressel from Vienna remarked that while negotiations about a ceasefire in the Black Sea are ongoing, there appears to be little excitement surrounding the idea. He cautioned that the Russian fleet has already been diminished significantly by Ukrainian drone strikes and that reciprocal attacks have become scarce. Furthermore, Gressel raised pertinent questions about whether a ceasefire at sea would also entail a cessation of missile launches from the Black Sea, as the Russian fleet frequently targets Ukraine using Kalibr missiles from this location.
Moreover, Gressel questioned if an agreement would extend to stopping drone flights over the Black Sea, as such unmanned vehicles are frequently deployed in attacks on Odessa. Recent spikes in attacks on the city have raised alarms, emphasizing the importance of addressing these issues in any potential agreement. If negotiations fail to cover these critical factors, observers speculate that Russia may be positioned to gain more time, leaving the US negotiating efforts stalled once more.
As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen whether the US and Russia can bridge their differences or if talks will continue to tread water without meaningful outcomes.
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